The United States is debating whether to remove its foreign terrorist designation for Hayat Tahrir al Sham, now the de facto ruler of Syria.
HTS is an outgrowth of Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, the Al Nusra Front. Its leader, Abu Mohammad al Julani, is not only the former emir of the Al Nusra Front but also a former lieutenant of ISIS. A key part of Julani’s strategy was to portray HTS as having moderated since its rebranding in 2017 — something the U.S. has consistently rejected. With its conquest of Syria, however, some U.S. officials are floating the possibility of removing its Foreign Terrorist Organization designation.
“There is a huge scramble to see if, and how, and when we can delist HTS,” one current official told Politico.
White House national security spokesman John Kirby said on Tuesday, “There are no discussions right now about changing the policy with respect to HTS, but we are watching what they do.”
Four current and former officials speaking with the outlet said vigorous debate is playing out among policymakers. U.S. law allows the secretary of state to impose or revoke an FTO designation for a group at any time. Doing so carries immense political risks, however.
In recent years, Julani has aimed to moderate HTS’s image to win international support, even purging itself of more overt pro-al Qaeda elements. The U.S. and most other international bodies haven’t been convinced.
The U.S. noted that HTS is a “vehicle to advance [al Qaeda’s] position in the Syrian uprising and to further its own goals,” while the United Nations cited several state intelligence services in claiming that HTS “and its components still maintain contact with al Qaeda leadership.
As head of the Al Nusra Front, Julani oversaw a reign of terror in areas under its control. Activists and members of minority communities, particularly Christians, Kurds, and Alawites, were routinely abducted, tortured, and murdered. One lawyer abducted and tortured by the group told Amnesty International that rule by the group was worse than that of the Assad regime.
In a recent interview with CNN, Julani said that his time in the leadership of ISIS and head of Al Nusra Front was a phase.
“I believe that everyone in life goes through phases and experiences. … As you grow, you learn, and you continue to learn until the very last day of your life,” he told CNN when asked about his previous career.
Allies of President-elect Donald Trump, who will inherit the situation next month, seem skeptical of Julani’s overtures.
“Lots of groups say the right thing as they come into power because they’re concerned that their hold on power is fragile, and then once they consolidate power, they focus on implementing their ideology,” Gabriel Noronha, a former Trump administration official who worked on Middle East policy, told Politico.
Julani “has to be judged over the course of his career, not just what he’s done over the past few months,” Nathan Sales, the former top State Department counterterrorism envoy in the Trump administration, told the outlet. “When you look at his résumé, it’s a blue-plated terrorist résumé.”
“We should all be very skeptical of the ability of HTS to deradicalize itself at the moment of victory,” he added.
Vice President-elect J.D. Vance has urged caution about the rebels, warning that “Many of ‘the rebels’ are a literal offshoot of ISIS.”
“One can hope they’ve moderated. Time will tell,” he added.
Israel’s ambassador to the U.S., Michael Herzog, warned that there “are no good guys in this story,” as the opposition to deposed President Bashar Assad was made up of jihadists.
The Biden administration doesn’t appear to be ready to make any major decisions regarding the new leadership just yet.
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“The president likely will want to get comfortable with any new regime in Syria before making changes to the U.S. sanctions in order to maintain the leverage the sanctions provide him and to avoid rewarding any new government with strong ties to terrorist groups,” David Mortlock, a former U.S. official who dealt with sanctions, told Politico.
The sudden blitz of jihadist-led rebels out of Idlib on Nov. 27, culminating in the collapse of the Assad regime 11 days later, took the world by surprise, completely upending the fragile order in the Middle East.