The lingering presence of ISIS in Syria likely means that U.S. troops in the country are not going to leave any time soon, regardless of the sudden collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime.
There are roughly 900 U.S. troops in Syria and about 2,500 in Iraq, and they are part of Operation Inherent Resolve, which is dedicated to ensuring the defeat of the Islamic State.
President-elect Donald Trump has indicated his desire for major global conflicts to end quickly as he assumes the presidency.
On the Syria situation, he has already indicated a desire to stay on the sidelines, writing on Truth Social, “Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”
The sentiment has been echoed by another Republican, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL), who led a failed congressional effort in 2023 to get the U.S. to withdraw its troops from Syria.
In an op-ed from March 2023, she wrote, “Local terrorism in distant countries is not an existential threat to America and can be effectively managed by long distance capabilities and prudent alliance strategies.” She also acknowledged, “The threat of ISIS is currently minimal and if it rises again as a functioning state, it will not take us much time to return and crush it. In short, nothing in the region demands constant troop deployment and endless war.”
On Monday, she posted a video on social media of her speaking on the House floor, calling for her colleagues to support her efforts to get the U.S. military to withdraw from Syria.
With the fall of Assad and the inevitable chaos and confusion that will follow, there are fears that Assad’s military arsenal, including his chemical weapons supply, could fall into the hands of any number of groups, ISIS included.
“[O]ur mission against ISIS will be maintained, including the security of detention facilities where ISIS fighters are being held as prisoners,” President Joe Biden said on Monday. “We’re clear-eyed about the fact that ISIS will try to take advantage of any vacuum to reestablish its capability and to create a safe haven. We will not let that happen.”
A senior administration official said the U.S. is “very focused” on ensuring Assad’s chemical weapons don’t fall into the wrong hands.
“On chemical weapons, something we are very focused on: Obviously, a lot of expertise in the U.S. government on this issue, and we’ve been concentrated on that here over the past week or so as the situation broke out, and I think we are taking very prudent measures in that regard,” the official said.
ISIS has tried to reconstitute in the Badiya desert, according to the official. The U.S. military conducted a massive campaign of airstrikes over the weekend, targeting known ISIS camps and operatives. U.S. Central Command forces struck over 75 targets with about 140 munitions.
“There should be no doubt — we will not allow ISIS to reconstitute and take advantage of the current situation in Syria,” said Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, the head of CENTCOM. “All organizations in Syria should know that we will hold them accountable if they partner with or support ISIS in any way.”
Similarly, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Tuesday to “expect that kind of activity” to continue moving forward because ISIS “love[s] nothing more than ungoverned space.”
Israel has also carried out hundreds of strikes inside Syria as they seek to prevent a dangerous group from controlling the land along the Syrian-Israeli border. Israeli forces have also entered Syrian territory to create what they say is a buffer zone.
From January through June of this year, ISIS claimed more than 150 attacks in Iraq and Syria, CENTCOM announced in July. The group was on pace to more than double the total number of attacks they claimed the year before. At the time, CENTCOM had said the U.S. and the Syrian Democratic Forces had carried out 59 missions in Syria that resulted in 14 ISIS operatives killed and 92 ISIS operatives detained.
Kurilla has emphasized the importance of rehabilitating and repatriating the more than 9,000 ISIS detainees in detention facilities and more than 43,000 individuals in two major refugee camps in Syria. The population of the Al Hol and Al Roj camps peaked at over 70,000 people in 2019.
The primary group that ousted Assad was Hayat Tahrir al Sham, which initially was an offshoot of Al Qaeda, though they have publicly distanced themselves from AQ. The U.S. designated HTS a terrorist organization in 2018, though a senior Biden administration official said, “I think [it] is something we’ll have to look to down the line.”
With Trump about six weeks away from his second inauguration, the fallout of Assad’s collapse will presumably still be a problem playing out when he’s sworn in. Trump ordered the U.S. military to withdraw from Syria in 2019, though he ultimately changed his mind.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
One of Trump’s critics when he made the initial announcement was GOP Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL), whom Trump has selected to be his national security adviser for his second term.
“I think we’re just making a strategic mistake here,” Waltz said in October 2019. “I am very concerned that we are creating the conditions for ISIS to return.”