Life expectancy in the United States is expected to increase from 78.3 years in 2022 to 80.4 years in 2050, which is below that of other wealthy nations.
A study from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation found the U.S. is expected to lag in life expectancy gains compared to most other high-income nations and some middle-income nations. In terms of overall life expectancy, the U.S. is expected to fall to 66th out of 204 countries assessed in 2050, which is down from 49th in 2022.
Researchers are calling this an “alarming trajectory of health challenges” facing the country.
“In spite of modest increases in life expectancy overall, our models forecast health improvements slowing down due to rising rates of obesity, which is a serious risk factor to many chronic diseases and forecasted to leap to levels never before seen,” Christopher Murray, director of IHME and co-senior author of the new research, said in a news release.
“The rise in obesity and overweight rates in the U.S., with IHME forecasting over 260 million people affected by 2050, signals a public health crisis of unimaginable scale,” Murray continued.
The slight increase in U.S. life expectancy is because of a predicted decline in mortality due to lower numbers of leading causes of death, including heart disease, stroke, and diabetes. A few key factors would improve U.S. life expectancy, including lower rates of obesity, smoking, and drug use disorders. Lowering those elements could each lead to about a half-a-year increase in life expectancy by 2050.
According to the study, if the U.S. eliminated risk in three key areas — environment, behavioral, and metabolic risks, as well as childhood nutrition and vaccination — there would be about 550,000 fewer deaths per year by 2050. This would raise life expectancy by nearly four years, which is in line with current projections for Canada.
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Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also suggest that drug overdose deaths have started to decline after reaching record-high levels. Still, the IHME noted that the levels of drug overdose remain high and are expected to increase over the next few decades.
Life expectancy among women in the U.S. is predicted to improve less than men’s, shrinking the gap in life expectancy by gender. The U.S. is expected to drop from 51st to 74th in life expectancy for women in 2050 and from 51st to 65th for men.