The threat the Islamic State terror group poses to the United States is limited at this point but still very real, according to a top military official.
U.S. forces are "in a good spot right now" as it relates to ISIS's status in Syria but do "not necessarily" have "the touch of everything that's going on" as it relates to the Afghanistan branch of the Islamic State, known as Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K), according to Lt. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, commander of U.S. Air Forces Central.
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"ISIS probably isn't something to worry about. We've got them down — visually, I think of being on the ground and we've got our boot on their neck, if you will. So they're not in a position, ISIS in Syria, they're not in a position to take significant action against us," he said during a Defense Writers Group event on Wednesday. "They do have a fair number of cells. They've got a few senior leaders, they've got a few training grounds that are beyond the area where coalition forces routinely operate."
The U.S. still conducts operations against ISIS fighters, including 36 operations in August, which resulted in the deaths of 7 ISIS operatives and the apprehension of 25 more, Central Command said. U.S. forces most recently captured Mamduh Ibrahim al-Haji Shaykh, whom CENTCOM spokesman Lt. Col. Troy Garlock described as an "ISIS facilitator," in a successful helicopter raid in northern Syria last week.
Grynkewich stressed the significance of a number of prisons across northeast Syria housing "roughly 10,000 ISIS prisoners" that "could easily be freed if we don't keep them secure."
In January 2022, ISIS fighters launched a prison break at Gweiran Prison and the fighting went on for days until the Syrian Democratic Forces and coalition forces were able to end it. Dozens were killed on both sides in the more than week-long fight.
Another concern for the U.S. is the internally displaced persons camps in Syria that house tens of thousands of people. The U.S. has pushed countries to repatriate its citizens from these camps in order to reintegrate them back into society. Military personnel have described the children who live in these camps as a potential future generation of ISIS fighters, emphasizing the importance of the repatriation efforts.
The U.S. military is also following ISIS-K's development in Afghanistan from afar following its exit after two decades of war in August 2021. U.S. Central Command Commander Gen. Michael "Erik" Kurilla told lawmakers in March that ISIS-K will have the ability to launch attacks against U.S. interests outside the country in less than six months "with little to no warning."
Grynkewich on Wednesday concurred with Kurilla's assessment, acknowledged there's "been an increase in risk," and said he thinks "it is likely that ISIS-K has the desire, and in some cases, the capability to do external operations."
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"We've seen some of that regionally. I don't think there's a threat beyond the region right now. But ISIS-K certainly has aspirations to go farther," he added. "They're likely one of the most capable elements of ISIS right now and something that we need to keep a close eye on. We've got a good feel overall of what their capabilities are. But again, you always want more, right."
ISIS-K has claimed responsibility for a handful of attacks in Pakistan that are "concerning" to Grynkewich, noting that such attacks are indicators that U.S. forces look for to determine an adversary's capabilities.