European allies cannot replace United States military aid to Ukraine in the event that congressional leaders do not authorize additional American assistance, according to a European Union official who warned against allowing Russia to salvage a victory in the war.
“I was in Kyiv some days ago, just at the moment when we knew that the U.S. Congress had not included the support to Ukraine on the big deal about the budget, in order to avoid the shutdown,’ EU high representative Josep Borrell told reporters as European leaders gathered in Spain. “Ukraine needs the support of the European Union, which is sure that they have it, and we will increase it, but also the support of the United States.”
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Borrell and other European officials have emphasized this week that the Kremlin still has a path to “winning this war” if U.S. military aid stops flowing.
“The hope of the Ukrainians and, I think, of everybody that does not want Putin winning this war, is to look for the ways for the United States to retake this issue and continue supporting Ukraine,” Borrell told reporters.
The dwindling stockpiles of ammunition for the weapons already available to Ukraine have spurred an uneasy recognition of European military dependence on the United States in a 2024 election season dominated by Donald Trump’s attempted return to power.
“Europe cannot replace the United States,” Borrell said. “On the table, there are proposals for €50 billion for the civilian and economic side and €20 billion for the military side ... Certainly, we can do more, but the [support of the] United States is something [indispensable] for the support to Ukraine.”
The lack of European defense capacity has been a thorny issue in the transatlantic alliance for years. It was an obvious bone of contention during Trump’s presidency, but also a quiet dispute during Barack Obama and George W. Bush’s presidencies. It has become a more pressing concern as European governments, even relatively well-prepared countries, such as Finland, come to terms with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to break the taboo against an invasion to redraw the borders of a European state.
“We have been preparing in Finland. We have a high level of resilience in society, but I don't know if that's the case in other countries,” Finnish European Affairs Minister Tytti Tuppurainen said this week at the Warsaw Security Forum. “Would our societies run out of endurance should there be an aggression towards us? I don't know. But at least I think we have to do our homework when it comes to societal readiness and preparedness and resilience.”
Those debates have been complicated in recent years by French President Emmanuel Macron’s desire for “strategic autonomy” from the United States, which has led some officials in both Washington and Central Europe to suspect that European defense plans could lead to a divergence of U.S. and European security policies.
“We cannot allow ourselves to have cracks in our alliances in the Western unity, because it only benefits Russia and Putin,” said Tuppurainen, whose country joined NATO in April. “It wants to divide and rule. It wants to see a fragmented alliance that is not capable to live up to its obligations. So we need to take care of the unity. And one part of the unity is the European obligation to invest more in its own capabilities. It is not against the United States.”
President Joe Biden’s administration tried to reinforce that warning, despite the uncomfortable backdrop of congressional discord over continued funding for Ukraine, as the economic and social burdens of the war in Ukraine create incentives for Polish politicians to take more confrontational stances toward Ukraine in lead-up to Poland’s imminent parliamentary elections.
“I would urge Poland, as I would all of our friends in Europe, and frankly, my colleagues back at home, including Congress, we have to stay together on this and show that united front,” Philip Gordon, the national security adviser to Vice President Kamala Harris, said Wednesday at the Warsaw forum. “I believe that Putin's assessment of this war is that, if he holds out long enough, we will eventually get tired of supporting Ukraine and we'll show divisions among us, and that's what he needs.”
Gordon argued that Putin is “destined to fail” with that strategy, but allies have emphasized the impermanence of Ukraine’s wartime successes if they lose access to U.S. weapons.
“We have to keep Ukraine in the fight tonight and tomorrow and the day after,” James Heappey, the British armed forces minister, warned the Warsaw Security Forum on Tuesday. “And if we stop, that doesn't automatically mean that Putin stops. It may well mean that Putin takes the opportunity to break through and achieve the aims that he had in the first place."
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Tupparainen, for her part, urged European allies to hope for the best in transatlantic unity and prepare for the worst.
“You never know what's going to happen in the United States,” she said. “It’s [in a quite] unpredictable situation at the moment. So if they expect us to work more on our continent, towards the end of more security and capabilities here, let's do it. And let's do it in a united manner.”