Flanked by the relatives of hostages seized by Hamas during the Iran-backed terrorist group’s Oct. 7 attack, Israel’s top diplomat put a harsh spotlight on a different regional power player: Qatar.
“They have financed them for more than a decade,” Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen told reporters at the United Nations. "They give a shelter to their leaders. So, it's in their hand. And, therefore, they should act immediately and release all the hostages immediately. Today. It's the responsib[ility] of the emir of Qatar. It's in his hand.”
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That bracing message shifted the burden not merely to another Hamas patron, but one that President Joe Biden designated a “Major Non-NATO Ally” in 2022, thirteen years after the Gulf Arab state began to host United States Central Command’s forward headquarters. Qatar’s ability to maintain both sets of relationships, analysts say, is emblematic of the paradoxes that American and even Israeli leaders have found it convenient to tolerate — until an eruption of violence that portends a painful reckoning inside the U.S. government and its alliance network.
“The entire security concept that the Israelis and the United States shared … needs a complete review,” Foundation for Defense of Democracies senior vice president for research Jonathan Schanzer told the Washington Examiner. “We are now, right now, potentially looking at a regional war in the Middle East, which would have immense consequences for American foreign policy. And there needs to be a top-to-bottom review of how we got here.”
As Cohen leaned on the Qataris, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s team took a more collegial approach.
“I’m pleased to say that Qatar is becoming an essential party and stakeholder in the facilitation of humanitarian solutions,” Israeli national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said. “Qatar’s diplomatic efforts are crucial at this time.”
Israeli officials have acknowledged a strategic error regarding Hamas officials who duped them into thinking that the terrorist group wanted financial support from the Jewish democracy, not war. "We believed that the fact that they were coming in to work and bringing money into Gaza would create a certain level of calm,” an Israeli military spokesman told Reuters. "We were wrong.”
The pretense of placidity in Gaza contributed to the hope that Israel and much of the Sunni Muslim world, the Saudi Arabians chief among them, might sidestep the long-festering Israeli-Palestinian conflict in order to coordinate against threats from Iran that appeared to loom larger than Hamas. U.S. officials in recent years have worked to broker a series of so-called Abraham Accords between Israel and key Muslim-majority states, beginning with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Those agreements were galvanized by a shared Arab-Israeli perception that Iran poses a dire regional threat, but condemned by Iran and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who leads a NATO member state and also sympathizes with Hamas.
“If I were the Saudis, I would be thinking to myself, ‘This [terrorist attack] is part of an Iranian plot, not just to disrupt the emergence of unified Sunni bloc in the region, but using violence to prevent it, and I think using violence to increase Iran's influence,” said Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), who sits on the Senate intelligence and foreign relations panels.
In the weeks since Oct. 7, Israel has embarked on an unprecedented bombardment of Hamas in anticipation of a campaign to “attack them everywhere, every commander, every operative, destroy infrastructure” — a Gaza invasion that might only be the most obvious phase of the hunt of Hamas.
“I would be shocked if we did not see Hamas operatives wind up dead on Qatari soil and Turkish soil in the not-too-distant future,” Schanzer said. “I would be shocked if there isn't more fallout after that.”
Israel likely would find a fair amount of American support in that scenario. “People are going to have to start choosing. The world is dangerous,” Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), who sits on the Armed Services Committee, said in an interview. “China, Russia, Iran, North Korea — they're supporting anybody that opposes the United States, basically. … Everybody's gonna have to start choosing sides.”
That’s not a fraught process in the Middle East, where hostility to Israel runs deep. "They have internal political realities,” Rubio said. "These leaders have to account for that in how they communicate. So it is a very delicate situation.”
Cohen, the Israeli foreign minister, thinks that they can foil Iran’s aim to "harm the peace and normalization process” after the end of the carnage.
“Israel and most of the Muslims in our country, in our region face the same threat: Iran and the terror organization,” he said at a U.N. press conference. “So definitely, it will take time, since right now we’re in a war, but I think that they will not be able to achieve this goal.”
Some senior Hamas officials, such as Khaled Mashal, have worked to inflame the region from the comfort of Qatari hotels. “The Lebanese front is now on fire, and we are grateful for that ... greater things are needed, certainly,” Mashal said in a recent televised interview, referring to a government that has had a peace treaty with Israel since 1979. “But we should not single out Lebanon and Hezbollah. Let’s talk about the countries bordering with Israel.”
His demands drew a skeptical response. “The situation of the people of Lebanon is very bad. The last thing that they need is another war that will come with another bill to pay,” said the Al-Arabiya host who conducted the interview. "They say, ‘Khaled Mashal is sitting in an air-conditioned room, talking about war, jihad, and bombings.”
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That scalding interview aired on a Riyadh-based media outlet, a provenance that suggests to some analysts that Saudi officials are displeased with Hamas, despite their initial statement blaming Israel for the uproar. Qatar reportedly has agreed, at Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s urging, to “revisit” their relationship with Hamas, but they have not decided whether that will “entail an exodus of Hamas leaders from Qatar,” according to the Washington Post.
“Well, I don't think Qatar is nearly as bad as Iran, I mean, that's obvious, but they should not be hosting a terrorist group,” said Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), who sits on the Senate Intelligence Committee with Rubio. “Ironically, because of that relationship, they may be able to be helpful on the hostages.”