Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea have increased their cooperation with one another but not to the extent the United States does with its own allies, according to the director of national intelligence, Avril Haines.
Those U.S. adversaries are “not acting as a block,” Haines said during an event with the Council on Foreign Relations on Thursday, adding, “We don’t see them as a four-part alliance or something along those lines. What we are seeing, without question, is increased cooperation on a bilateral and sometimes trilateral level.”
U.S. intelligence analysts are also skeptical that they will become allies “in the same way that we are allies with our NATO allies,” Haines said, specifically referencing U.S. and European military interoperability and collaboration.
Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has lasted for nearly three years, much longer than Moscow anticipated, has been a major aspect of the joining of the anti-Western countries. Russia’s inability to achieve its objectives in Ukraine and the continuation of the war have forced Moscow to seek military support from other countries.
Iran has provided Russia with thousands of one-way attack drones, helped them set up a manufacturing plant in Russia to produce more of them, and has provided Russia with ballistic missiles. North Korea has provided Russia with artillery and about 10,000 troops, making it the first country to allow its own troops to enter the conflict.
In response to North Korea’s decision to provide troops to Russia, the U.S. loosened the restrictions it had in place, barring Ukraine from using U.S.-provided weapons to hit military targets deep within Russian territory and not just along the border. In response to the move, Russian officials issued its latest saber-rattling attempt, opting to change its nuclear doctrine.
The U.S. has also accused Beijing of indirectly supporting Russia by giving it “dual-use” manufacturing equipment that provided assistance to its defense industrial base.
The growing partnerships between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea also make it harder for the U.S. to protect “certain international norms,” Haines said, specifically identifying nuclear counter-proliferation as an example where the U.S., Russia, and China had “actually cooperated … to some extent.”
Last year, Russia suspended its participation in the New Start Treaty, a nuclear arms control agreement with the U.S., after the two sides agreed to a five-year extension back in 2021, prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Haines also referenced Russia and China’s position as permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and noted that it’s gotten “much harder” for the U.S. and the other members to be effective.
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“I think it has gotten much harder for us to actually work with them to effectively do that. And in large part, that’s because Russia is now beholden, to some extent, to both the DPRK and to Iran for advanced weapons, for other, you know, for ammunition, for things that they need in the context of their fight with Ukraine,” Haines said. “And as a consequence, they’re less interested in pushing back against either Iran or the DPRK in this context and are not going to take a sort of strong position in the U.N. Security Council in that scenario.”
The four anti-Western countries have also positioned themselves to aid one another in evading U.S. or Western efforts to curb their behavior, like sanctions, she added.