China’s increasing pressure on the Philippines has the U.S. ally on course to “end up in a bad place,” according to the top U.S. military officer in the Indo-Pacific.
“It’s a really critical hotspot right now that could end up in a bad place,” Admiral John Aquilino, who leads the Indo-Pacific Command, told the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday. “The continued belligerent and aggressive and dangerous activity by the PRC against our allies in the Philippines is concerning to me.”
Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping has overseen an aggressive assertion of sovereignty over vast swathes of the South China Sea at the expense of other states, such as the Philippines and Vietnam. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., has prioritized upgrading his government’s cooperation with the United States — reversing a more docile strategy adopted by his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte — in response to a series of intensifying confrontations with Chinese Coast Guard and other forces in the area.
“The threat has grown,” Marcos told Bloomberg TV. “And since the threat has grown, we must do more to defend our territory.”
Chinese officials insist that the Marcos administration is fueling the risk of conflict.
“What has recently escalated the situation concerning the South China Sea issue between China and the Philippines is that the latter has frequently made infringements and provocations, stirred up troubles at sea, and spread disinformation to mislead the perception of the international community,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said Wednesday.
Marcos preempted that criticism in his interview, saying that he’s not “poking the bear” by coordinating with the United States.
“We have not instigated any kind of conflict,” he said. “We have not instigated any kind of confrontation. We are just trying to feed our people. We’re just hoping to let our fishermen fish and to go about our business.”
China used coast guard vessels the block the delivery of supplies to a Philippine military outpost in the Second Thomas Shoal on March 5. That incident is one of several that analysts take to signify “a qualitative shift” in China’s efforts to enforce its claim to sovereignty over most of the South China Sea, in defiance of a 2016 victory by the Philippines in a lawsuit brought before an international tribunal.
“China’s efforts to expand its control of the South China Sea are a distinct threat to both U.S. and global interests,” United States Institute of Peace senior adviser Dean Cheng said in a recent publication. “China’s efforts to dominate what has sometimes been termed the carotid artery of global trade threatens the sea lanes of communications of Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, all key U.S. allies and partners.”
Marcos hosted Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Manila on Tuesday, as the two governments finalized plans for a summit in Washington that will include President Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. That dialogue is emblematic of a wider effort to harness the power of the U.S. and other regional allies in the face of China’s attempts to claim sovereignty over the region.
“These waterways are critical to the Philippines, to its security, to its economy, but they’re also critical to the interests of the region, the United States, and the world,” Blinken told reporters Tuesday in Manila. “We have an ironclad commitment to it and to the Philippines, and Article IV of that treaty extends to any armed attacks on Filipino armed forces, on public vessels, on aircraft, and that would include its coast guard. And that would also be anywhere in the South China Sea.”
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s subordinates summoned the Philippine envoy in Beijing to “China’s strong dissatisfaction” with the Philippine president’s “recent negative statements.” Marcos emphasized that he wanted to avoid invoking the mutual defense treaty if possible.
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“We are still trying to keep it peaceful,” Marcos said. “It does not serve any purpose to heighten tensions, to say okay, I am invoking now, the mutual defense treaty.’ I don’t think anyone wants that unless… the effects are such that it will become an existential threat to the country.”
Aquilino concurred. “I would hope that the international community condemnation of those actions is enough to get the Chinese to back off,’ but if it doesn’t, it could go in bad places,” he told the House panel. “The Philippines, if a sailor or soldier or one of their members were killed, could invoke Article Five of the mutual defense treaty. And that would put our policy decision-makers in a place that would require really tough choices.”