A year into the war in Ukraine, the United States's commitment to funding and supplying the fight against Russia has emerged as a dividing line in the nascent 2024 Republican presidential field.
Former President Donald Trump has warned that the conflict could metastasize into World War III with nuclear-armed Russia and has vowed to resolve it diplomatically within “24 hours.”
During her campaign launch in South Carolina earlier this month, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley declared: “We’ll stand with our allies — from Israel to Ukraine — and stand up to our enemies — in Iran and Russia.”
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Haley has tried to square the circle between the “America First” skepticism of “endless wars” of her former boss and the expansive foreign policy of George W. Bush with Ronald Reagan’s “peace through strength” formula. “A strong military doesn’t start wars,” she said in her Charleston, South Carolina, launch speech. “A strong military prevents wars!”
But equating Israel, a longtime major recipient of U.S. foreign aid passionately supported by must-win evangelical voters, with Ukraine as allies sends an unmistakable message to the Republican base.
Former Vice President Mike Pence, who isn’t yet an announced candidate for the Republican nomination, is clearly eyeing the 2024 race and putting distance between his Ukraine stance and Trump’s.
"Beyond the courage of the Ukrainian people, we've also seen free nations of the world unite to stand with the Ukrainian people and stand up to the Russian aggression," Pence said in a foreign policy address in Texas that was delivered on the anniversary of the Russian invasion. "We will not stop providing [military aid] until victory is achieved."
Pence has argued that President Joe Biden hasn’t acted decisively enough in funding and equipping Ukraine’s military, while Trump has contended the incumbent is more interested in Kyiv's defense than the southern border or the toxic train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio.
Biden was slow to visit the border and has yet to travel to East Palestine.
"If we surrender to the siren song of those in this country who argue that America has no interest in freedom's cause, history teaches we may soon send our own into harm's way to defend our freedom,” Pence said, deploying rhetoric much closer to Bush’s than Trump’s.
This reflects a larger split in the Republican Party over the war in Ukraine specifically and U.S. foreign policy more broadly. Many fiscal conservatives no longer wish to exempt the Pentagon from their budget scalpels. Populists would like to see greater focus on domestic problems, like the flow of fentanyl. Many inside the GOP would like to shift attention from Europe and the Middle East to the threat posed by China.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) said before winning the gavel that there would be no “blank check” for Ukraine under a Republican majority. But Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has said aid to Ukraine is no act of charity.
Some of the divide is generational. McCarthy was first elected to Congress in 2006 as Republicans were losing their majorities partly in response to public dissatisfaction with the Iraq War. McConnell was first elected in 1984 during the Cold War as Reagan won reelection in a 49-state landslide.
Trump attempted to make a clean break from Bush’s foreign policy during his term but relied heavily on Bush alumni and fellow travelers to staff his national security team. Some of those officials, like Pence, Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and former national security adviser John Bolton, are part of the prospective field likely to run against him next year.
The big name to watch is Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who hasn’t indicated he is running but is the only GOP contender to lead Trump in any major public polls. He has so far sounded closer to Trump on Russia and Ukraine, criticizing Biden for overextending.
“They have effectively a blank-check policy with no clear strategic objective identified,” DeSantis told Fox & Friends. “These things can escalate. And I don’t think it’s in our interest to be getting into a proxy war with China getting involved over things like the borderlands or over Crimea.”
Some Trump associates had hoped foreign policy could be an area where the former president could distinguish himself from DeSantis, finding him too hawkish. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) has already endorsed Trump, citing that he started no new wars during his first term. Pence appears to also want to use foreign policy against DeSantis but prefers to cast the Florida governor as too dovish — and too much like Trump.
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But if the top two candidates, which the polls currently find to be Trump and DeSantis, take essentially the same Ukraine position while the also-rans disagree, the debate could be diminished.
“Who would you rather agree with in a Republican primary?” a GOP strategist asked. “Joe Biden or Tucker Carlson?”