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Jun 6, 2025  |  
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Tom Rogan


NextImg:Ukraine drone attack is a wake-up call for America on China

In Virgil’s Aeneid story of the Trojan War, a Trojan priest issues a warning when the Greeks are found to have ended their siege of Troy and left a wooden horse in their place.

“Timeo danaos et dona ferentes” — “I fear the Greeks, even when bearing gifts.”

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Following Ukraine‘s audacious drone attack on the Russian air force, the Russians might now adopt a similar proverb: “I fear the Ukrainians, even when they’re simply driving trucks.”

After all, it was trucks with dozens of drones hidden under floor panels that allowed Ukraine to destroy about two dozen Russian strategic bombers and an A-50 radar aircraft on Sunday. Those lost aircraft were worth billions of dollars in total and carried even greater value in military power. Due to the supply chain problems and suspended production lines, this attack will mean a sustained degradation to Russia‘s bomber force. And all of this devastation was inflicted by drones and explosives that cost a few hundred thousand dollars in total.

Ukraine’s Trojan horse truck operation now demands the immediate contemplation of U.S. military, law enforcement, and political leaders. If Ukraine can smuggle drones all across a vast country that has been at war for more than three years, China could likely do so against America on a far greater scale.

Now, consider a scenario.

It’s March 2027. The U.S. intelligence community has told President Donald Trump it is confident that China is preparing an imminent invasion of Taiwan. In response, Trump orders a massive U.S. military buildup in the Western Pacific. China then declares a large exclusion zone around Taiwan, warning that any foreign military forces that enter the zone will be subject to attack. Trump refuses to withdraw U.S. forces from this zone but orders the U.S. military not to use force unless China attacks.

In mid-April, China calls for dialogue. Trump accepts. Tensions seem to be cooling. But the following day, hundreds of small kamikaze drones armed with explosives are launched into U.S. airspace. They come from civilian cargo ships sitting in major U.S. ports and just off the coast of U.S. naval bases. Hundreds more kamikaze drones are launched from trucks, fields, and streets close to power and water plants, Air Force bases, CIA headquarters, the Defense Department, Pacific Command headquarters in Hawaii, and locations across Guam.

The drones slam into their targets. Many fighter and bomber aircraft survive the attacks in hardened shelters, but others on the tarmac at high readiness are destroyed. Simultaneously suffering from drone strikes and major cyberattacks via hidden malware, water and power supplies to major cities are disrupted. The conning towers on two U.S. aircraft carriers and numerous destroyers preparing to head to the Pacific are destroyed. Two Virginia-class attack submarines are rendered inoperable.

At the same time, a vast propaganda campaign is launched on TikTok, which Trump refused to ban. It apologizes to Americans for the devastation but warns that China is only trying to restore its version of Hawaii. It calls on Americans to demand peace from their leaders and pledges that if peace is secured, China will pay very generous compensation for all the damage its drones have caused. Peace, Chinese President Xi Jinping and his TikTok minions claim, will mean a new era of win-win cooperation for both China and the United States. War, they warn, will mean relentless attacks of the kind just seen. Xi says China has thousands more drones hidden on U.S. soil that are ready for use. Sun Tzu smiles in his grave, satisfied at this great modern masterpiece of surprise, economy of force, and strategic effect.

What would America do in such a scenario? Fight like it did after Pearl Harbor in 1941? Or surrender to a short, sharp system shock that made the 9/11 attacks seem mild by comparison?

This is no purely hypothetical concern. Chinese intelligence officers are increasingly employing drones to spy on U.S. military bases and critical infrastructure on U.S. soil. They have done so for years but have very rarely been caught. They’ve been successful even though the FBI has launched a number of highly classified operations to catch them. And unlike in China, where ubiquitous technical and human surveillance makes it very hard for U.S. spies to operate, America is seen as easy pickings for Chinese intelligence services.

China already operates hundreds, perhaps thousands, of officers and agents on U.S. soil. These loyal servants of the Chinese Communist Party are supplemented by tens of thousands of other Chinese students, business owners, and scientists who can be called upon to serve at any point. If they refuse to do so, their families back home face imprisonment. Put simply, China has de facto legions of would-be saboteurs operating inside the U.S. at any moment.

The scale of this espionage threat far dwarfs the FBI’s ability to counter it (the Washington Examiner is working on a separate article related to the FBI’s current redeployment of already limited resources away from spy-hunting investigations). The only positive factor is the Trump administration’s increased scrutiny of Chinese student visas.

Only a fool or a Chinese Communist supporter would treat the above as hyperbole. A war over Taiwan is likely coming before 2030.

Xi views Taiwan’s subjugation under the Chinese Communist Party flag as a key test of destiny. He has told the People’s Liberation Army to be ready to conduct a successful invasion of the small island democracy and U.S. partner by the year 2027. PLA training exercises, patrols, and procurement activities, and the testimony of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command’s leadership, all underline that Xi is preparing to take decisive action sooner rather than later.

If China seizes Taiwan by force, it will dominate the energy and trade routes of the Western Pacific, intimidate long-standing U.S. allies such as Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea into economic and political subjugation, and persuade Europe and the rest of the world that Beijing is the ascendant superpower deserving of deference over America. This will make America and the world less free, less prosperous, and ultimately subservient to a communist autocracy. Why would that be so bad?

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Well, do we expect a China-dominated Western Pacific to import U.S. goods or Chinese goods? And what would trillions of dollars in lost exports mean for U.S. jobs? Do we expect a China-dominated global order to accept political speech, music, and movies that offend Xi? Do we expect a China-dominated planet to stand up to Beijing’s industrial intellectual property theft and intimidation of its perceived enemies? Do we expect a Chinese Communist superpower to treat us well when it already throws millions of its own people into concentration camps?

China’s threat obviously goes far beyond drones. And the era of drone-related threats is only just beginning. But if the U.S. wants to ensure its defense against a future Pearl Harbor-style attack, we must urgently improve our monitoring and interdiction of foreign intelligence threats on U.S. soil.