The new $61 billion U.S. aid package provides Ukraine with a much-needed boost against Russia’s invasion. The package includes air defense, artillery, and long-range rocket-launched missiles. The first Ukrainian pilots are also close to completing their conversion training on F-16 fighter jets. These additive capabilities will bolster Ukraine’s defenses and enable its more effective targeting of and imposition of friction upon high-value Russian targets.

This is good news. Ukraine’s successful resistance to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion is important for the freedom of Ukraine, the sovereignty of some of America’s best allies in Europe, and the principle that aggressive imperial gambits do not prevail. Still, Ukraine and the European Union must not squander the opportunity of this moment.

The basic truth is that U.S. support for providing aid to Ukraine is declining. If former President Donald Trump returns to office, U.S. foreign policy priorities will swing heavily toward China. If President Joe Biden remains in office, congressional appetite for new aid packages is likely to be significantly lower than today. Especially, that is, if Republicans are unable to point their constituents to improved security along the U.S.-Mexico border. Ukraine must thus assume that the military equipment it is about to receive may not be received again. In turn, it must use that equipment more effectively. That means reduced counteroffensive ambitions, at least for the moment, and instead a greater focus on attriting Russia’s higher-value assets.

The devastation Ukraine has already caused to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet offers a template for it to double down on. As do Ukrainian strikes against command-and-control headquarters, airfields, bridges, and other logistics nodes. Ukraine should also reject the Biden administration’s idiotic overcaution and continue striking Russian targets, including petroleum facilities, inside Russia proper. Alongside new capabilities such as F-16s, this strategy can help Ukraine resist Russian offensives and exploit their failures (Russian forces have shown an impressive inability to conduct effective combined arms operations). Ukraine can simultaneously continue to drain the resolve and capabilities of the Russian military and war economy.

True, international sanctions against Russia have yet to achieve significant effects. But they will have a growing impact over time as Russian finance remains unable to access Western markets and Russian shortages of high-tech/high-value industrial goods become more profound. All of this explains why Putin wants this war over as soon as possible. Russia’s position is less confident than Putin presents it to be.

Yet Europe must also take note of the changing strategic situation.

While the EU has committed greater financial aid to Ukraine than has the United States, European cheerleaders ignore some key context. For one, the fact that four EU member states border Ukraine, and another EU state, Estonia, has a preeminent position on Putin’s wanted list. The consequences of Ukraine’s defeat would obviously be more significant for Europe than for America. The Europeans also leave out that much of the aid they have pledged to Ukraine is yet to be delivered. This mismatch between European rhetoric and action is particularly stark in key areas such as artillery shells. That needs to change. As does the EU’s tolerance for naked sanctions evasion in using Kazakhstan as a conduit for high-value trade with Russia.

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Put simply, French President Emmanuel Macron must put his money where his mouth is in boosting support for Ukraine. And other EU powerhouses such as Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain must join France’s bolstered effort. It can no longer be the case that the United Kingdom, Poland, and the Baltic states carry the weight of Ukraine’s support. Failing a dramatic wartime escalation in support for Ukraine, Europe makes it far likelier that Putin will prevail and then expand his threat beyond Ukraine. If European leaders don’t believe he will expand his threat directly toward them, they should look closely at what Putin and his top security officials, such as Nikolai Patrushev, say. As Patrushev put it last month, “Sovereignty and true democracy in the EU countries are history.”

Top line: If Ukraine is to succeed, and it can succeed, Kyiv and its European neighbors must recognize that this U.S. aid package is unlikely to be repeated in scale. Ukraine must adapt its strategy, and Europe must get real about Russia’s renewed challenge to the European continent.