The demise of the U.K. Conservatives is a warning for President Joe Biden. The Conservatives seem set to be demolished in Great Britain’s general election on July 4. Replacing them, the Labour Party is expected to gain a large majority and rule. However, the Conservatives’ demise has also been fueled by the increasing popularity of Reform U.K. and its right-populist message.
Similar to the rest of the West, high inflation and slow economic growth have plagued the United Kingdom since COVID-19 and government lockdowns. The inflation rate has been similar to the U.S. inflation rate in recent years. The poorest have been hardest hit, with an increased demand for food banks and debt advice charities. Simultaneously, the U.K. has been facing waves of thousands of migrants crossing the English Channel in small inflatable boats.
The Conservatives have failed to successfully address these issues. Liz Truss’s famously short and chaotic term of office led markets to panic as her dramatic tax cuts were expected to be financed by more government borrowing. Rishi Sunak, the Conservative prime minister, passed a bill to minimize immigration by deporting migrants to Rwanda. Still, more people have crossed the channel so far this year than during the same period in the previous four years.
Now the Conservatives are facing an existential crisis as they head into Thursday’s election. Labour is polling at 40% while the Conservatives poll at only 20%. Shockingly, Nigel Farage’s new Reform U.K. party has surged to 17% in the past year. It is within the margin of error for overtaking Sunak’s Conservative Party and threatens to help the Labour Party dramatically minimize the Conservatives’ parliamentary presence.
It is nearly certain the British government will be controlled by a party nominally to the left of the current ruling party. However, the U.K. election can also be listed among other right-populist electoral waves occurring globally. It is arguable that the U.K. is generally to the left of the United States. While an imperfect comparison, the British Conservatives have more in common with Democrats than Republicans in this election cycle.
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With the two-party system in the U.S., the opposition to the Democratic establishment’s failures over the past four years will come from the Right rather than the Left. Polling indicates that immigration and the economy are top concerns in the 2024 American presidential election. President Joe Biden does not score well on either of those matters for most voters.
The power of right-populist messages against immigration and government mishandling of the economy has been demonstrated in the collapse of the Conservative Party in Britain. Voters in the U.K. and the U.S. have been exhausted by economic hardship and mass migration under the current political leadership. Just as Sunak faces electoral peril on July 4, Biden should be worried about November.