Political commentator Tucker Carlson is again proving himself wrong when it comes to Russia.
Describing U.S. sanctions imposed on Russia since its Feb. 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Carlson observed that “It was absurd. So we underestimated and frankly just didn’t really understand the nature of the Russian economy, Russian civilization, and I’m not endorsing that economy or civilization, just saying we didn’t understand what it was. So we levied these sanctions … and in the end, hurt ourselves more than we hurt Russia.”
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That statement is simply not accurate.
Russia’s GDP dropped dramatically in 2022, recovering only due to massive wartime spending. Inflation is sustainably high in Russia, with government services stretched to the breaking point in many regions. Yes, Russia has still managed to sell oil, particularly to China and India. But it has done so at hefty discounts, curbing Russia’s all-important oil and gas revenue. Russia has also been cut off from much-needed American and European technology and is forced to rely on complex, expensive smuggling schemes and less reliable products from other nations. The Russian economy is currently feeling a deep brain drain stemming from the fact that millions of skilled Russian workers have either been conscripted, redirected into the military-industrial complex, or fled the country. You can agree or disagree with the decision to impose sanctions on Russia, but to pretend the American economy was somehow damaged more than the Russian economy is preposterous on its face.
Carlson’s exaggeration of Russian power extends to the war in Ukraine. Consider that prior to the outbreak of war in February 2022, Russia already held 12% of historical Ukrainian land between its holdings in Crimea and southeastern Ukraine. As of this summer, however, it has only managed to conquer an additional 7% of Ukraine. Russia currently holds roughly 113,000 of Ukraine’s 603,000 square kilometers. These highly limited gains came at the cost of approximately 200,000 dead Russian military personnel.
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Nor is Russia the global powerhouse that Carlson imagines. When Bashar Assad’s regime fell in December of last year, for example, Russia wasted no time abandoning its positions in Syria, and in a matter of two months had evacuated the country entirely. This withdrawal included abandoning Russia’s long-standing Tartus port on the Mediterranean.
I often criticize U.S. foreign policy, and, like Carlson, I disdain the policies of former Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama that led to meaningless wars in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and elsewhere. Russia’s top-down economy is roughly the size of the economy of Texas. Carlson’s claims about Russia are completely at odds with the facts.
Brady Leonard (@bradyleonard) is a musician, political strategist, and host of The No Gimmicks Podcast