As predicted a year ago, the progressive legal movement’s breakneck race to try Donald Trump in criminal court as soon as he locked up the Republican presidential nomination, with no small help from said political prosecutions, has invited a deluge of dumbed down and dismal media coverage.
Although distractions spanning from Ukraine and Gaza to the antisemitic riots on college campuses have drowned out much of the press’s laser focus on a 17-year-old one-night stand, the National Enquirer, and convicted liar Michael Cohen, still, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s crusade against the former president has accomplished its real purpose: diverting media attention away from the disaster that is Joe Biden’s America and toward the disaster that is Trump’s personal life.
But even as national presidential polling has narrowed, with Trump’s RealClearPolitics average polling lead over the incumbent Democrat sliding from 2 percentage points last month to just 1/5 of a point Wednesday, the “Trump on trial” narrative hasn’t percolated to the most crucial swing states. That, or, the swing states have too much at stake politically, be it a 19% increase in prices since Biden took office or the national security risks at the southern border or abroad, to care about Trump’s personal failures.
A new slate of polls from Bloomberg and Morning Consult find Trump’s lead has actually expanded to 7 points in Arizona (up from 5 points in March), 8 points in Nevada (up from 2 points), 4 points in Wisconsin (up from Biden actually leading by 1 point), 1 point in Pennsylvania (up from a tie), and 10 points in North Carolina (up from 6 points). Trump’s leads only shrunk in Georgia, from 7 points to 6 points, and reversed in Michigan, from a tie to a 2-point lead for Biden.
These polls aren’t quite outliers. Across the board, Trump’s leading margin either has increased slightly over the past month or held more or less constant except in Pennsylvania, where Trump had a 1/2-point lead a month ago and now trails Biden by 0.4 points.
Every four years, the press tries to forget the reality that the presidency isn’t decided by the national popular vote, but rather by the Electoral College. That reality undergirds the five-alarm fulmination overtaking the White House as it tries to triangulate between securing stability in the Middle East and placating the Arab diaspora in Michigan, and it also explains why the sixth year of the “Trump might have paid a porn star to stay quiet about their adulterous fling” may be proving a flop.
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As noted above, the consumer price index has risen 19% since Biden took office, but some states, particularly swing states, have been hit harder. Per the Congressional Joint Economic Committee, prices have risen by 21.6% in Nevada and Arizona and 21.2% in Georgia and in North Carolina. Inflation has trended slightly below average in the “blue wall,” at 18.8% in Wisconsin and Michigan and 17% in Pennsylvania. But those are also three of the worst performing states in economic growth since before the pandemic. Whereas Florida’s real GDP has increased by a staggering 20% since the third quarter of 2019, Wisconsin has grown 2.1%, Michigan by 6.3% and Pennsylvania by 3.3%.
The president may think the election comes down to Dearborn, Michigan, and the press may think it’s contingent on Trump’s trials. But it may continue to be as boring as the reality that it’s the economy, stupid, and Biden simply hasn’t delivered. Because if the polling were correct and the election were held today, Trump would win the Electoral College with 293 votes, and he only needs 270 to win.