Former President Donald Trump's endorsement often holds a large amount of political power — candidates he’s supported have racked up multiple wins, but some Trump-endorsed GOP hopefuls have garnered losses. Regardless, Trump looms over each election cycle, and 2024 is no different.
Most of Trump’s preferred candidates won their primary elections, at least 224 out of 241, according to the Washington Post, along with 216 out of 250 candidates who appeared on the general election ballot, per Ballotpedia. However, a significant number of those candidates were incumbents or running in races not considered competitive.
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“We got a lot of good, tough Republicans around that people are going to run against them, and people are going to win, and they're going to get my endorsement every single time,” Trump said last week at a rally in Pennsylvania, boasting his record. “And they're going to win because we win almost every race.”
Past Endorsements
Trump’s party had an underwhelming performance in the 2022 midterm elections, which they promised to dominate. He endorsed more than 200 candidates, making bold choices in the high-profile primaries last year.
“It all depends on the district,” Republican political strategist John Feehery told the Washington Examiner. “In some districts, Trump’s endorsement is solid gold, and in other districts, it’s kryptonite.”
Key wins
In Wyoming, Rep. Liz Cheney lost to Trump-backed competitor Harriet Hageman. However, Trump’s endorsement may not have been the biggest factor in her loss. The once vice-chair of the House Jan. 6 panel faced a major reckoning after repudiating Trump following the Capitol riot and 2020 election denial.
In a crowded field for the Republican nomination for Senate in Ohio, Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) beat Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan with 53% of the vote. Vance had mixed feelings about Trump in the past, telling Charlie Rose in 2016 that he was a “Never Trump guy. I never liked him.” However, Vance embraced the Trump party during his primary, campaigning with the former president and ultimately appealing to swing voters to gain the GOP seat.
Freshman Sen. Ted Budd (R-NC) rode a Trump endorsement to victory, defeating his Democratic challenger Cheri Beasley for the outgoing GOP Sen. Richard Burr's seat in a race that was virtually tied in the polls.
Rep. Lauren Boebert, the Trump loyalist, won her bid for reelection against Democrat Adam Frisch.
Key losses
In perhaps the biggest loss of the midterm elections for the former president, Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) defeated Trump-backed Dr. Mehmet Oz in the most expensive Senate race in the nation. Oz lost in multiple areas where Trump carried the vote by double-digits in 2020, according to NBC News.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AL) beat her Trump-endorsed opponent Kelly Tshibaka. She was defeated in the primary, but Murkowski became the second person in history to ride a write-in campaign for a U.S. Senate seat to victory. As an incumbent, Murkowski was the only Senate Republican who voted to convict Trump at the impeachment trial in 2021 for charges of incitement of an insurrection. She won with around 53% of the vote, despite her break in party lines and the former president backing another GOP candidate.
Herschel Walker, the former University of Georgia football star, headed to a Georgia runoff with incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) in what Republicans hoped would be a clear win with Trump’s support. Early polling showed a promise of victory for Walker, capturing 68% of the vote in a May 2022 survey. However, many conservative voters didn't show up for Walker in the special election, and Warnock earned 49.4% of total votes.
Current Endorsements
Trump’s influence on the current Republican party in 2024 still has proven to be relevant, with eleven other Republicans having announced their candidacies for president so far — Trump towers over them in the polls.
Republican candidates who hope to hold seats in the Senate and House are widely casting their support for the former president, despite his numerous legal battles. However, those pledges of support are not always reciprocated.
Current endorsements
It’s still in the early phases of campaigning, so Trump has yet to roll out a heavy list of official endorsements.
The current GOP presidential front-runner has backed Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN) for the Senate seat held by Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN), who is running for Indiana governor in 2024. Trump said in February that Banks “will never let you down,” to which he replied he was “proud to be endorsed by the greatest president in my lifetime.”
Trump is expected to officially endorse Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV), who is competing for Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) position in one of the most vulnerable Democratic seats in the 2024 election cycle. Trump endorsed Justice in 2020, and Justice endorsed him for president this year. Justice has remained one of the most popular governors in the nation, with 62% of respondents approving of his job performance, according to a Morning Consult survey.
“I think Trump and Justice are pretty close friends, so I expect Trump to endorse there, although he is such a big figure in his own right that I don’t think it matters much,” Feehery said.
Republicans are hoping to flip a critical Senate seat in Ohio in 2024, and they have supported Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose to replace Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) in a state that carried Trump in the 2020 election. Trump endorsed LaRose ahead of Ohio's primaries last year, but reports indicate that LaRose has undermined the power of Trump's support behind closed doors.
“There is another 20 percent that care about who he endorses, but that’s not going to be the decision maker. And then there’s probably another 60 percent of the party that doesn’t care who he endorses,” LaRose said in recorded remarks obtained by POLITICO.
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Most of the time, you’d “rather have Trump with you than against you, but that’s not true in every district,” Feehery said.
“Trump likes winners,” Feehery said, adding that is the factor he cares about most.