Former President Donald Trump’s choice of a running mate has ramifications far beyond short-term political advantage.
Trump has not exactly established a clear vision for his second term in the Oval Office. His campaign has largely relied on criticism of President Joe Biden, but has few well-defined proposed solutions. Trump has contradicted himself numerous times on how he intends to approach foreign policy, for example.
As the former president is not particularly policy-oriented, his first term was largely shaped by those with whom he surrounded himself. Then, he mostly maintained fairly traditional Republican staffers and ideas. Now, though, influences such as the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 have the potential to completely upend conservative governance. Trump, though, hasn’t embraced it.
Trump’s running mate choice will be one of the best indicators of which direction he intends to take a second administration. While the short list is still subject to change, the current contenders appear to be Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), and former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson.
This list breaks down into three groups: traditional conservatives, reserved partisans, and unapologetic Trump loyalists.
The traditional conservatives are Cotton, Scott, and Burgum. I have already written about why I believe Cotton is the single best choice for vice president, as he would be able to appeal to Republicans wary of Trump and bring foreign policy prowess to the ticket. Burgum and Scott would similarly appeal to more hesitant Republican voters, but they have a less extraordinary policy record behind them.
The more reserved partisans are Carson, who is so boring that he brings no particular advantages or drawbacks to the ticket, and Stefanik, who could target the critical demographic of suburban women. Stefanik has a relatively moderate voting record, but has also clearly aligned herself with the Trump campaign.
The final group of unapologetic Trump loyalists not only back the former president on politics, they back him on policy. Donalds is a decisively Trumpy member of the House, while Rubio has gone from holding fairly old-school conservative positions to being at the forefront of the “New Right.” It is Vance, however, who is most clearly aligned with the national populist movement.
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Vance’s selection as running mate would be particularly damaging, both electorally and policywise. He would bring no meaningful coalition building to the ticket because he is so aligned with Trump, while his “industrial policy” hocus-pocus and foreign policy near-isolationism would disenfranchise Reaganites critical to the Republican coalition and wreak havoc if actually implemented.
While Trump’s choice of a running mate will be an early indicator of how his second administration could look, it will not tell the whole story. Trump’s choices to fill cabinet positions and staff the White House will ultimately be more important than just his vice president. Conservatives do need to have legitimate concerns about Trump’s foreign policy, approach to trade, and expansion of executive power. Not only could they set a dangerous precedent, but they also could undermine Republican efforts to elect Trump’s successor in 2028.