As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to reenter the White House, he faces a world markedly different from the one he left.
War rages in Europe, the Middle East is once again in turmoil, and China is more emboldened and belligerent than ever. Compounding these challenges is the steady fraying of America’s traditional alliances, especially in Europe, where decades of political, economic, and strategic neglect have left once-reliable partners diminished and consumed by a self-inflicted civilizational crisis. To safeguard U.S. interests in an increasingly volatile world, Washington must diversify its partnerships. Africa, a continent Trump once infamously disparaged, merits a fresh look.
Too often regarded by the United States through the lens of instability, poverty, and corruption, perceptions that, while not unfounded, obscure more than they illuminate, Africa’s policy agenda has been largely dominated by aid programs, democracy-building experiments, and “impact investing” schemes. Yet Africa is of immense strategic value to the U.S. — both as a vital source of minerals critical to our defense industrial base and as a possibly key partner in the geopolitical contests of the 21st century.
The continent is home to roughly 32 critical minerals essential to the U.S. military capabilities, including bauxite, the primary source of gallium extraction, and antimony, whose supply to the U.S. has been curtailed by Chinese export controls. Africa also accounts for 80% of global platinum reserves, nearly half of the world’s cobalt, and vast untapped deposits of lithium and copper. These are resources over which China wields significant control. In all, Africa possesses one-third of the world’s mineral reserves, much of it unexplored.
The Biden administration has tried to tap this reality. In 2023, it committed to the Lobito Corridor, a billion-dollar project primarily funded by the U.S. Development Corporation designed to connect Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo with Angola’s Lobito port, enabling the transport of critical minerals for export. That’s well and good, except the core hurdle facing Africa’s mineral industry is not just logistics but the continent’s entrenchment in the upstream segment of the value chain. Africa largely exports raw, unprocessed materials, mostly to China, with little value added locally. A railway, while helpful, does little to resolve this disparity.
This issue has become a mounting source of frustration for many African governments eager to diversify their resource sectors away from China and their economies at large. For the Trump administration, however, it presents a compelling strategic opening. By assisting African nations in building downstream capabilities, for instance, mineral refining and processing, the U.S. could secure a steady supply of higher-value refined minerals vital to its defense industrial base. This strategy could not only shore up U.S. supply chains but also foster more robust partnerships with African countries, rooted in shared interests. Ironically, as African nations look to build their defense sectors, they, too, need their minerals.
The geopolitical challenges confronting the U.S., from China’s infiltration of critical infrastructure to Russia’s information warfare and the illicit maritime activities of an axis of authoritarian nations, are increasingly being mirrored in Africa. In the Gulf of Guinea, Chinese fishing fleets threaten local fishermen and deplete marine resources. Russia’s Wagner Group has fueled instability in the Sahel while growing Chinese arms exports risk inflaming regional conflicts. The fall of Syria’s Bashar Assad, a Russian key client, has also prompted some African governments to reassess what Moscow and its axis partners can reliably offer in terms of defense.
In some respects, many African nations appear to have read the signs of the times with greater strategic clarity than our European friends. Consequently, more are prioritizing the development of domestic defense capabilities, aiming to reduce reliance on foreign military aid. Zambia, for instance, is building its own arms industry, including drone production. Similarly, Côte d’Ivoire and Nigeria are advancing indigenous surveillance and assault drone technologies. Like other Gulf of Guinea states, they increasingly rely on drones to bolster maritime security, including against Chinese encroachment.
These trends bring their own security and governance challenges, long the stumbling blocks of U.S. Africa policy, and will require considerable time and resources to realize. Yet they also mark a shift toward greater self-reliance in African security and defense which could, over time, lay the foundation for stronger strategic alliances, particularly in countering shared threats posed by an axis of authoritarian regimes. While many African nations keep ties with these nations, their relations are often more nuanced than assumed.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM MANNING THE RAMPARTS
Trump has a unique opportunity to align with Africa’s industrial and defense ambitions, anchored in the development of its critical minerals sector; secure vital U.S. supply chains; and foster possibly long-term ties with an increasingly important region.
With our traditional partners in disarray, it might be time for Washington’s consideration of U.S. strategic alliances to shift, too.