President-elect Donald Trump has signaled his desire to take over Greenland, and he has several options to make his dream a reality.
Trump’s designs for Greenland were first floated during his first administration, but his rhetoric has intensified ahead of his Jan. 20 inauguration. He insisted that the acquisition of Greenland is essential for national security purposes and hasn’t taken anything off the table regarding its transfer to the United States.
Here are the main ways Trump could acquire Greenland:
Purchase from Denmark
The most straightforward way, favored by the president, would be to purchase the world’s largest island from its overlord, Denmark. The U.S. acquired a large amount of its current territory through a monetary transaction, from the Louisiana Purchase in 1803 to the Alaskan Purchase in 1867.
In fact, a buyout wouldn’t be the first time the U.S. bought territory from Denmark; in 1916, it purchased what are now most of the U.S. Virgin Islands and in 1944 bought Water Island.
The U.S. has also attempted to purchase Greenland on multiple occasions, the most recent occurring in 1946, when the U.S. offered $100 million in gold to purchase the island, seeing it as essential for the burgeoning Cold War. The deal fell through for unclear reasons.
The U.S. also exerted de facto control over the island during World War II, when the U.S. occupied the island due to the occupation of Denmark proper by the Germans.
Alex Gray, the National Security Council chief of staff during the first Trump administration, told Politico that a direct purchase of Greenland isn’t “out of the realm of possibility.”
How much the island would cost is up for debate. The annual gross domestic product of the island is around $3 billion, but its true value lies in its rare earth materials. According to the Economist, the island has known reserves of 43 of the 50 minerals deemed “critical” by the U.S. government. It is suspected to have the largest deposits of rare earth minerals outside of China.
Purchase from Greenland’s government
Greenland has been granted extensive autonomy by Copenhagen, up to and including the right to declare independence whenever it wants. It has so far eschewed the option, largely due to the extensive benefits it receives from Denmark.
However, the island is so autonomous that Denmark may not even believe it has the right to sell it.
“Denmark doesn’t claim to own it,” Scott Anderson, a former State Department lawyer, told Politico. “I am quite confident that the government of Denmark, as we’ve seen them say things, doesn’t think it has the legal authority to sell Greenland to anyone.”
In that case, the U.S. could directly purchase the island from the autonomous Greenland government. For just $56 billion, the U.S. could give all of the 56,000 islanders $1 million.
Economic warfare
Trump could institute a high tariff on all Danish goods if it refuses to let go of Greenland, something that could have a drastic effect on its economy. According to the State Department, Denmark is “highly dependent on foreign trade,” and the U.S. is its largest non-European trade partner.
The U.S.-Denmark two-way goods trade totaled over $15.7 billion in 2021. A combination of a carrot-and-stick approach could convince Denmark that it would be better off departing with Greenland.
Military invasion
The most dramatic of the options, and one Trump hasn’t ruled out, would be a military invasion of the island.
A direct military confrontation between the U.S. and Denmark over Greenland would be no contest, with the U.S. military vastly superior by every conceivable metric. The U.S. has over 66 times more active personnel and a military budget nearly 131 times larger than Denmark’s. Any operation would be guaranteed immediate sea and air supremacy,
A U.S. military operation to seize the island would likely resemble Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, with special forces quickly seizing key infrastructure while defenders offer no resistance. The U.S. already has a military base in Greenland, Pituffik Space Base, from which to launch an operation.
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Though Denmark is part of NATO, the rest of the alliance would almost certainly not come to its aid, with the U.S. military being more powerful than every other NATO military combined. The alliance is also more concerned with Russia and unlikely to alienate its most powerful member in favor of one of its weakest.
However, such a move would damage U.S. prestige and its relations with other allied countries. The European Union has already warned that it wouldn’t tolerate any attack on one of its member states but didn’t specify what measures it would take in response.