


Alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was an honored guest at China‘s military parade in Beijing on Wednesday. Modi used his China visit to signal his discontent with President Donald Trump.
Modi pledged new cooperation with China and held a lengthy and apparently constructive conversation with Putin in his presidential limousine (likely to mitigate Chinese surveillance and because Putin wanted to signal strength to Trump in light of the U.S. president’s recent Alaska summit, during which he hosted Putin in his own limousine). Modi broadcast his anger at Trump’s recently imposed 25% tariffs on India. Trump imposed the tariffs because of India’s Russian oil purchases. Alongside a separate U.S. 25% tariff levy, a significant majority of Indian goods exported into the United States are now tariffed at 50% rates. Relations between New Delhi and Washington, D.C., are at their lowest point in decades.
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That’s disappointing.
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Positive U.S.-India relations would serve both nations. The U.S. is the world’s most powerful democracy, and India is the world’s most populous democracy. Indian Americans enrich U.S. society and are exceptionally well-represented at the forefront of business, science, and technology. As India’s economy and political power grow, the two nations could forge a 21st-century partnership for shared prosperity, democracy, and peace. That would be a partnership to better counter rampant Chinese and Russian efforts to take territory that does not belong to them (something India should be more concerned about, considering the Chinese activity on its northern borders), and to steal from or otherwise subjugate democratic nations.
However, a strong partnership relies on a measure of reciprocity. In recent years, the U.S. has done far more for India than India has done for the U.S.
Yes, it should be recognized that Trump made a serious error in excusing China from similar tariffs over its vast imports of Russian energy supplies. Trump’s excusing of Beijing and targeting of New Delhi is unfair. Still, the U.S. has done a great deal for India in recent years. In notable shows of solidarity with New Delhi, the U.S. has repeatedly participated in Indian military exercises in areas central to Sino-Indian territorial disputes. Additionally, as the Washington Examiner‘s Tom Rogan noted, “The U.S. has also significantly escalated its sharing of sensitive military technology and knowledge with all branches of the Indian armed forces. And Washington has provided intelligence related to Pakistan and China that is of high value to New Delhi’s territorial defense … This leaves us in a dynamic in which India continues to extract high-value U.S. diplomatic, economic, and military support simply by showing a little more skepticism toward Russia, a little more cooperation against China’s maritime threats, and a few more red carpet visits for U.S. officials.”
Put simply, Modi cannot make a straight-faced claim that Trump has suddenly betrayed him. Historic U.S. allies and trade partners in Europe are under increasing threat from Putin’s war on Ukraine and broader imperialist ambitions. In turn, Trump’s Russia-focused 25% tariff on India is justified. By continuing to purchase Russian oil, Modi continues to reward Putin’s refusal to engage seriously with Trump’s effort to peacefully end the war in Ukraine. As they blame Trump for shredding the U.S.-India relationship, Indian officials would do well to look in the mirror. After all, Modi’s indirect funding of Putin’s war of aggression renders utterly hypocritical his sermons on India’s claim that its foreign policy centers on nonalignment in the service of beneficial international cooperation.
Trump knows he has real leverage to break India’s Russian oil fix. The U.S. is far and away India’s key export market. Indian exports to the U.S. were valued by the Indian government at $88 billion in 2023 and 2024. In contrast, Indian exports to China and Russia were valued at $16.66 billion and $4.26 billion, respectively. And while India is a major import partner for both China and Russia, New Delhi’s economic prospects ultimately depend far more on growing exports to the U.S. than on maintaining Sino-Russian imports. These data points inform Trump’s realistic expectation that India will either eventually find alternate energy suppliers or pressure Putin to pursue peace so that India can continue importing Russian energy without suffering U.S. tariffs.
However, Russia concerns notwithstanding, Trump should be more open-minded about his general tariff policy toward India.
Yes, India employs its own tariffs against U.S. goods and, like China, provides market-distorting subsidies to its domestic industries. Yet, because of the preeminent threat that the Chinese Communist Party poses to the U.S. and its allies, it is crucial that the U.S. do everything possible to establish alternate supply chains outside of China. India is a natural fit for this. It has a large population, a foundation of democratic governance and respect for the rule of law, and an increasingly skilled labor force. For example, the production of goods such as iPhones in India rather than in China would benefit India’s economy and keep U.S. consumer goods prices stable.
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Industries crucial for national security should be on-shored, but a trade deal that allows for more goods to be imported from India would benefit both Indians and Americans. It would thus also boost political cooperation and trust. If India has indeed offered to eliminate import tariffs on U.S. exports as Trump has said, he should withdraw his separate 25% tariff in return.
That said, the 25% Russia-related tariffs must remain in place until Putin either agrees to a just peace or India finds alternate energy suppliers. Russia’s war on Ukraine is Europe’s bloodiest and most destabilizing conflict since 1945. India cannot credibly continue to claim both the moral virtue of an unaligned foreign policy while helping an aggressor wreak havoc simply because it likes slightly cheaper oil.