On Nov. 28, 2024, Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party announced the suspension of the country’s European Union accession process until 2028 — a move widely viewed as a betrayal of the nation’s long-standing aspirations to join Western alliances. Within an hour of the announcement, protesters flooded Tbilisi’s central thoroughfare in defiance of what they saw as a dangerous pivot away from the country’s pro-Western trajectory.
In response, the United States suspended its Strategic Partnership with Georgia, with the State Department warning that the decision made the country more vulnerable to Kremlin influence. However, Washington’s reaction was largely symbolic, failing to deter the Georgian government. This marked a failure of deterrence on the part of the Biden administration, which, despite repeated warnings, failed to impose meaningful consequences on Georgian Dream’s leadership.
For years, Georgia has stood out as a pro-American stronghold in a region increasingly contested by Russian and Chinese influence. The Georgian people have consistently demonstrated their commitment to Western values — through their overwhelming support for NATO membership, participation in U.S.-led military missions, and rejection of authoritarianism. Yet, despite this reservoir of goodwill, Washington has been unable to prevent Georgia’s leadership from steering the country toward Moscow and Beijing. Now, President Donald Trump has a critical opportunity to correct this course — if he chooses to leverage U.S. influence wisely.
Under Georgian Dream, the country has drifted from its pro-Western orientation, embracing policies that align with the Kremlin’s interests rather than the will of its people. Crackdowns on media freedom, intimidation of opposition figures, and the passage of Russia-style “foreign agent” laws signal a troubling regression. Meanwhile, Georgia has deepened economic and security ties with China, which views the country as a critical transit hub for its Belt and Road Initiative. The ruling party has granted major infrastructure contracts to Chinese companies, including plans for a Chinese state-affiliated company to construct the strategic Anaklia Deep Sea Port — deliberately excluding U.S. involvement despite high-level interest from Trump’s first administration.
The implications of this shift are severe. Georgia’s strategic importance cannot be overstated. Just an hour’s flight from Tehran, it has served as a key location for U.S. military and intelligence operations in the region. Georgia has previously offered its territory for American military purposes, underscoring its value as an ally. Allowing the country to fall into Russia and China’s sphere of influence would weaken U.S. security interests in the Caucasus, the Middle East, and Europe.
Georgian Dream’s shift away from the West has sparked massive protests across the country. Instead of engaging with domestic and international concerns, the ruling party has opted for violent suppression of peaceful demonstrators, mass arrests of activists and journalists, and an intensification of anti-U.S. and anti-Western rhetoric. New repressive measures, including laws prohibiting protesters from wearing masks and new media restrictions, highlight the government’s desperation to maintain power at any cost.
The party’s conspiratorial rhetoric has only grown more extreme. In the lead-up to the contested October elections, widely viewed as neither free nor fair, Georgian Dream framed the country’s political crisis as the work of a mythical “global war party” allegedly plotting revolution and seeking to open a second front against Russia. According to this narrative, billionaire oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, the party’s founder and de facto ruler, stands as the sole force resisting these supposed global actors. Having built his fortune in Russia, Ivanishvili has since consolidated his grip over Georgia’s political system.
Following Trump’s victory, Georgian Dream began invoking the term “deep state” in an apparent attempt to align itself with Trump’s worldview. This is a cynical ploy to secure his administration’s favor while continuing policies that contradict U.S. interests. In reality, it has transformed Georgian institutions into a kleptocratic “deep state” where the judiciary and state institutions are controlled by loyalists.
The party’s anti-Western orientation was further exposed when Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze attended the inauguration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian alongside Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was later assassinated in Tehran. Meanwhile, Georgia has strengthened economic and political ties with China, signing a free trade agreement and a strategic partnership with Beijing, endorsing China’s vision of a restructured world order.
Georgia’s informal ruler, Ivanishvili, now hopes that the Trump administration will shield it from international criticism and legitimize its authoritarian practices. One of the most concerning examples of this is the party’s handling of the strategic Anaklia Deep Sea Port project. Despite high-level U.S. interest in developing the port as a crucial transit hub, Georgian Dream instead granted major infrastructure contracts to Chinese companies, allowing Beijing to expand its influence in the region. The decision not only undermines Georgia’s strategic relationship with the West but also places a critical infrastructure project under the sway of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, further entrenching Chinese economic control in the region.
If the Trump administration provides even tacit approval of Georgian Dream’s actions, it would legitimize the party’s authoritarian trajectory and effectively cede Georgia to Russian and Chinese influence. This would be a devastating betrayal for a country that has long resisted Russian aggression — from Soviet occupation to the 2008 war. It would also undermine decades of U.S. efforts to support Georgia’s independence and sovereignty.
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Instead, the U.S. must take a firm stance against the Georgian Dream’s growing authoritarianism. The Republican-led Non-Recognition Act, currently in Congress, outlines key measures that could shape Washington’s response. These should include targeted sanctions against regime figures, increased support for Georgian people, calls for the immediate release of political prisoners, and, most importantly, pressure for new free and fair elections.
The Georgian people have made their aspirations clear: They seek to be part of Western civilization. Washington must ensure that their voices are heard — and that authoritarian backsliding does not go unchallenged. Trump must recognize that the Georgian Dream is not an ally — it is a Trojan horse for Russia and China in the South Caucasus.
Paata Gaprindashvili is a former Ambassador from Georgia to Austria, and has served in other high-level diplomatic and government roles. He has been the Director of Georgia’s Reforms Associates (GRASS) since 2016. GRASS is a multi-disciplinary think tank.