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Jun 18, 2025  |  
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Naomi Lim


NextImg:Trump's Golden Dome becomes wedge in US-Canada trade negotiations

BANFF, Canada President Donald Trump upped the price tag for Canada to be protected by his highly anticipated Golden Dome missile defense project as the two countries simultaneously negotiate a trade deal to mitigate the worst of Trump’s tariffs.

The Golden Dome presents Canada with an opportunity to, in the words of one expert, “prove” itself to the United States after months of tensions because of Trump’s rhetoric and economic pressure. However, there are also political costs, including a lack of clarity regarding the project.

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Trump announced the new $71 billion price for Canada to be covered by his Golden Dome late Monday en route back to Washington after leaving the G7 summit in Canada early to address the latest Middle East conflict. The defense system would be similar to Israel’s Iron Dome but bigger and more complex, with hypersonic and space-based missile interceptors.

Aboard Air Force One, Trump increased the cost from $61 billion, which he announced last month in a social media post, when asked about Canada becoming the 51st state, something he’s often suggested.

“They’re going to have to pay a lot of money for the dome,” Trump said. “They want to be a part of it. We may make a separate deal on that, by the way. We discussed it. They want to be at $71 billion, they’re gonna pay. They’ll be in the dome.”

A spokesperson for the Canadian Embassy in Washington underscored how Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, the summit’s host, have spoken publicly about their discussions regarding the Golden Dome.

“Canada is looking at how it could participate in or complement the initiative,” the spokesperson told the Washington Examiner.

Vincent Rigby, a former Global Affairs Canada and Department of National Defence government official, contended it is “understood” that Canada cannot “step away” from the U.S. “completely” regarding trade, economics, defense, and security, despite “diversification strategies” because of Trump. 

“I mean, we share a continent,” Rigby, now a public policy professor at McGill University, told the Washington Examiner. “We are indivisible in that respect, and so it makes sense for Canada to still work closely with the United States on defense and security issues.”

The U.S. and Canada currently comprise the only binational military command in the world, the North American Aerospace Defense Command. However, while NORAD provides missile warnings, it is the U.S. that provides ballistic missile defense, with Canada committing in 2022 to spend $27 billion modernizing the system.

Rigby recalled being a member of the negotiating team regarding whether Canada should sign on to the U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense Program 20 years ago, before Canada decided against doing so, mostly because of domestic politics and concerns it could be “destabilizing in terms of deterrence.”

Now, two decades later, the politics have changed between the U.S., Canada, and the rest of the world, according to Rigby.

“Does it have some political ramifications?” Rigby asked. “Yeah, for sure. I think that if Canada can help the United States, if this pleases President Trump, if this adds to the net benefit for the Canada-U.S. relationship, then that’s a plus. That’s an added value for sure.”

He added, “You could suggest that a lot of Canadians would jump at the opportunity to prove to the United States that we can be of value, and that we’re a good neighbor, and that you don’t have to pick on us. But on the other hand, a lot of Canadians may say that given the way that we’ve been treated by President Trump, why would we now reach out and try to help him in some way?”

Trump first proposed the Golden Dome, inspired by former President Ronald Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative, before last year’s election, and last month announced that U.S. Space Force Gen. Michael Guetlein would lead the project, which is expected to cost $175 billion and take three years to develop. However, the Congressional Budget Office anticipated that the price could be closer to $542 billion, with the House accounting for $25 billion in its iteration of the “one big, beautiful bill.” At the same time, experts have emphasized that the hypersonic and space-based technologies remain in long-term development.

For American Enterprise Institute defense senior fellow Todd Harrison, those space-based interceptors could give Canada “pause” because they could incentivize a space arms race between the U.S., China, and Russia.

“The biggest issue is whether the Canadian government wants to give Trump a win like this and whether they would get anything in exchange,” Harrison told the Washington Examiner.

Atlantic Council GeoStrategy Initiative Associate Director Imran Bayoumi, a dual U.S.-Canadian citizen, agreed that there is a political aspect considering Canada is trying to “shed its reputation as a free loader” regarding defense spending with NATO.

“With ground or space-based interceptors likely to be part of the Golden Dome, there are questions within Canada about whether the Carney government will overcome long-standing domestic opposition in Canada to allow interceptors in its territory, overcoming its opposition to ballistic missile defense,” Bayoumi told the Washington Examiner. 

The former Department of Defense aide continued, “There is also a lack of detail on what exact capabilities the Golden Dome will entail … Without greater clarity on what exactly the Golden Dome will entail, Carney may have a hard time selling Canadians on supporting it.”

Center for Strategic and International Studies Americas Program Deputy Director Christopher Hernandez-Roy noted that during Carney’s visit to the White House last month, he promised Trump a “step-change” in Canada’s defense spending, “an irritant in the bilateral relationship going back several administrations of both parties.”  

“He realizes that Canada can no longer be a laggard on defense, and that this issue is also intimately tied to the broader U.S.-Canada trade relationship and tariffs,” Hernandez-Roy told the Washington Examiner. “As a result, ahead of the G7 meeting, he committed to meeting the NATO 2% standard by next year. He has also pledged to strengthen Canada’s defenses in the Arctic, and realizes that Canada needs to shoulder more of the burden for continental defense.”

Like Rigby and Bayoumi, Hernandez-Roy amplified how Canada’s “openness” to the Golden Dome is “a notable shift” from its “historical reluctance” regarding ballistic missile defense.

“I think right now they need to decide how they can participate that makes meaningful sense to Canada — participation in decision-making over the eventual functioning of the system — and how much it would cost,” he said. “Naturally, those expenses would be part of reaching and eventually exceeding the current NATO 2% threshold, which will almost certainly rise to 3% or more at the next NATO meeting.”

After meeting with Trump during the G7 summit, Carney told reporters that he and the president “focused on global challenges, as well as immediate trade pressures, including priorities for building a new economic and security relationship between Canada and the U.S.”

“To that end, we agreed to pursue negotiations toward a deal within the coming thirty days,” Carney said on social media.

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Before his departure, Trump made a point of praising Carney as the summit’s host, though he cautioned the prime minister on becoming “too complex on the deals.”

“They never get done, and we need speed,” he told reporters.