Former President Donald Trump is again dominating headlines thanks to an indictment.
His first, on March 30, boosted his polling above 50%, where it has remained since, and led to the biggest single-day fundraising haul of his campaign. But with second and third indictments now levied, and a fourth likely on the way, the law of diminishing returns could kick in.
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No one has ever been elected president following an indictment. In fact, Trump was the first current or former president to ever face criminal charges.
Yet to the extent the indictments have impacted The Donald politically, it's to the positive. His polling shot from 44% to 52% within days of his first series of charges, and he raised almost $4 million via WinRed from 80,000 donors on April 4, Politico reported.
Trump got another financial boost from his second indictment in early June, this one related to his handling of classified documents, but in a smaller amount of $1.3 million from 35,000 donors.
It remains to be seen how much will be raised from the most recent, though his allies are already working to raise funds off of the news.
The latest indictment consists of four new charges related to the Jan. 6 Capitol riot and Trump's alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election. A fourth, in Fulton County, Georgia, could come any day and is also related to his actions following the 2020 presidential contest.
Republicans were quick to denounce the move, made by a Department of Justice that answers to President Joe Biden, as further evidence of a two-tiered criminal justice system.
"This is the now the third prosecution of Trump by Democrats, with a fourth prosecution expected by Fulton County’s DA any day now," Tea Party Patriots leader Jenny Beth Martin said. "Meanwhile, the DOJ wants to give Hunter Biden a sweetheart deal and is covering up for ‘The Big Guy’s possible bribery and classified documents negligence. Conservatives experience persecution, while Democrats escape prosecution.”
But while Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), running a distant second to Trump in the GOP primary, described the new DOJ charges as more evidence of a "weaponized" federal government, he also makes the argument that Trump's conduct has turned off too much of the electorate.
“There are too many voters who are just not going to vote for him going forward,” DeSantis said in a Monday interview with Fox News.
The legal machinations may continue to help Trump seek the GOP nomination for a third time, but that effect will be reversed in the general election, argues Democratic strategist Tom Cochran.
"Fighting a multifront messaging war pushing back against indictments becomes increasingly difficult for Trump as [indictments] start to pile up," said Cochran, a partner at 720 Strategies. "Even the skeptics and deniers have to start acknowledging that multiple indictments demonstrate a level of legal culpability on the part of Trump. But given these uncharted waters, only time will tell how they play out for the election and our country."
In addition to the messaging war, Trump is also fighting a legal war that is eating into his resources.
His political action committee, Save America, began the year with $105 million on hand but has less than $4 million now, the New York Times reported, and has spent over $40 million already on the former president's personal legal needs. Thus, he'll need to keep spending on both the legal cases and the campaign for the foreseeable future.
DeSantis has attempted to make inroads on this front as well, with campaign spokesman Andrew Romeo saying Trump has "spent over $60 million this year on two things: falsely attacking Ron DeSantis and paying his own legal fees" rather than on defeating Biden in 2024.
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But many leading Republicans predict that Trump supporters will only grow more fired up with each new turn of the legal wheel.
"I think the American people see through this, and I think that every time Donald Trump gets indicted from this point on, he's gonna see a bump in the polls, he's gonna see an increase in fundraising," House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) said. "And I think what Jack Smith is doing is having unintended consequences for what their ultimate goal is, and that's to take Donald Trump out."