President Donald Trump is on the offensive regarding the anti-immigration law enforcement riots in the Los Angeles area by mobilizing the National Guard in California against the wishes of Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), a conflict Trump sees as a political winner.
By becoming the first president since Lyndon Johnson to dispatch the National Guard without a governor’s support, Trump not only sends a message to protesters but also provides himself with an opportunity to move on from last week, which was upended by the public deterioration of his relationship with Elon Musk.
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“Trump wants this fight,” Claremont McKenna College politics professor John Pitney told the Washington Examiner from California. “As a young man, he saw how the public sided against the protesters at the 1968 Democratic convention and the 1970 ‘hard hat riot’ in New York City.”
Pitney added that even after the 1970 riot at Kent State University in Ohio, during which National Guard members shot and killed unarmed students, “the great majority blamed the students.”
Another California-based political analyst, Dan Schnur, agreed that Trump “needed to change the subject,” contending the protesters are “playing right into his hands.”
“The vast majority of them are not attacking police officers or burning cars, but enough are that it creates very dramatic television,” Schnur told the Washington Examiner. “Trump knows that the phrase ‘mostly peaceful protests’ is unacceptable to most Americans, so the violence will work to his political benefit — even if he created it.”
Trump’s strategy is supported by data. Although, on average, a majority of polling respondents consider the country to be heading in the wrong direction and his approval rating regarding the economy is net negative 10 percentage points, his approval concerning immigration is net positive 4.5 points.
Democrats “consistently choose the 10 on every 90-10 issue,” including defending criminal illegal immigrants, White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said.
“The American people have made their opinion known on President Trump’s immigration agenda, which is why President Trump is in the White House and Democrats lost the presidency, the House, and the Senate,” Jackson told the Washington Examiner. “President Trump will keep his promises to the American people, no matter what dumb positions Democrats take.”
But Trump’s strategy also comes with risks.
Trump experienced a political backlash when trying to emphasize his law and order credentials after George Floyd died in police custody in 2020. Then, he was criticized when law enforcement officers deployed tear gas and other riot control tactics against protesters outside the White House so Trump and his aides could walk to St. John’s Episcopal Church for a photograph.
Now, Trump could also prompt Democrats to rally around the likes of Newsom and against the president after Democrats have struggled to counter him since last year’s election.
“Trump is surely rallying his base,” Pitney said. “The open question is what will happen if the disorder escalates further and ends in death. Will people react as they did in 1970, or will they blame Trump? With luck, we won’t find out.”
Schnur continued: “If the protests stay peaceful, this could hurt him politically. But it’s not clear that Democrats have a leader to make that case and be heard.”
To that end, Trump downplayed speculation he was helping Newsom’s presidential aspirations after the president encouraged border czar Tom Homan to arrest the governor after the Californian challenged the Trump aide to do so.
“I don’t think it’s going to help him,” Trump told reporters Monday at the White House. “I think it’s actually very bad for him.”
But earlier Monday, during his return to the White House after a weekend away, Trump conceded that Newsom “likes the publicity.”
“I would do it if I were Tom,” he said. “I think it would be a great thing. He’s done a terrible job.”
Meanwhile, Newsom and California Attorney General Rob Bonta announced they were mounting legal action against Trump, alleging the president unlawfully federalized the California National Guard, in addition to Newsom accusing Trump of “authoritarianism.”
“The President of the United States just called for the arrest of a sitting Governor,” Newsom wrote on X. “This is a day I hoped I would never see in America. I don’t care if you’re a Democrat or a Republican this is a line we cannot cross as a nation — this is an unmistakable step toward authoritarianism.”
But regardless of Trump’s opinion concerning whether he is helping Newsom, California Democratic strategist Garry South praised Newsom for “doing the right thing — both substantively and politically — by pushing back on Trump’s unprecedented militarization of domestic policy.”
“It’s a fraught moment for our democracy, for a president to turn troops loose on the American people,” South told the Washington Examiner. “Like everything Trump does, it’s all for political benefit, to make himself look like a tough guy to his MAGA base by taking on California and the Left Coast.”
South continued: “But he’s apparently so thick he doesn’t grasp that he’s turning Newsom into a national hero among Democrats by standing up to Trump, and taunting [the Department of Homeland Security] to arrest him.”
The Los Angeles County riots come after last week’s political melodrama regarding Trump’s relationship breakdown with Musk, as well as news, among other developments, that Russian President Vladimir Putin was preparing to retaliate against Ukraine for its surprise drone attack deep inside Russia, Salvadoran illegal immigrant Kilmar Abrego Garcia being returned to the U.S. after being unlawfully deported in March, and the Senate’s problems passing the president’s so-called “big, beautiful bill.”
“Chaos is never good for incumbents,” Democratic strategist Christopher Hahn told the Washington Examiner. “Voters don’t like it.”
When asked about the political optics of Trump’s response to the riots, a White House aide specifically disputed the argument that Abrego Garcia is not a winning issue for Trump.
“He’s a terrorist illegal alien being charged with heinous crimes after Democrats spent weeks rallying around him as their new hero,” the source told the Washington Examiner.
Trump mobilized at least 2,000 National Guard members to Los Angeles County over the weekend to respond to protests that started on Friday after Immigration and Customs Enforcement raided workplaces, including Home Depot, which devolved into violent riots after demonstrators threw concrete at Los Angeles Police Department officers and ICE agents. Law enforcement officials used tear gas, pepper spray, and flash-bang grenades against the crowd.
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The protests became increasingly violent on Saturday and Sunday, including demonstrators throwing Molotov cocktails at law enforcement and setting cars alight, while others prevented vehicles from passing on nearby roads and freeways and looted nearby stores.
Protests have since erupted in San Francisco as Trump ordered about 700 Marines to Los Angeles County to support National Guard members on Monday.