The Senate race in Arizona could be one of Republicans' best opportunities to seize control of the upper chamber next year, thanks in part to former President Donald Trump's polling numbers, according to the Kari Lake campaign.
Recent data show Trump leading President Joe Biden in Arizona, with the former president garnering a polling average of 46% compared to Biden's 42%, according to figures compiled by the Lake campaign in a memo obtained by the Washington Examiner. The numbers show Trump performing better in Arizona compared to other battlegrounds, suggesting the Grand Canyon State could be competitive for Republicans down-ballot.
TRUMP'S BIGGEST ACCOMPLISHMENT COULD ALSO FUEL HIS 2024 DEFEAT
Lake is one of the most vocal allies of Trump, with some establishment figures questioning whether her claims of a stolen election will hurt her in the general election. The campaign, however, sees the former president's support in the state as an encouraging sign for her bid.
"President Trump's lead in Arizona polls is a positive sign for Lake heading into 2024," the memo states. "President Trump's lead in Arizona outpaces both the national average and polling in all other states with competitive U.S. Senate races, barring [Ohio and Montana]."
The Arizona Senate race is set to be one of the most competitive elections of the 2024 cycle, one that could feature a three-way contest between Lake, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), and incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), who has yet to announce her reelection plans.
In a hypothetical three-way race, Lake leads Gallego by 1 point, 37%-36%, with Sinema trailing behind at 15%, according to recent polling from the Cygnal group. But another poll by Noble Predictive Insights, dismissed by the memo as a "stark outlier," shows Sinema in contention with Lake.
Overall, the memo finds a dead heat between Lake and Gallego, with both candidates polling at an average of 37% among Arizona voters. Comparatively, Sinema sits at 17%.
The memo argues Gallego's numbers will decline as voters get to know him, citing polling from the National Republican Senatorial Committee that shows 38% of the Arizona electorate has either never heard of or does not have an opinion of him. The Lake campaign will attempt to label Gallego, a progressive, as in "lock-step support of the Biden agenda."
The Senate election in Arizona, which is currently rated as a toss-up, took on new significance late last year after Sinema announced she would be leaving the Democratic Party to identify as an independent instead, opening the door for a three-way race in a vital swing state.
Gallego has already announced his bid to challenge Sinema, which could threaten to split the Democratic and independent votes should the incumbent choose to run.
Independent voters make up the largest voting demographic in Arizona, accounting for nearly 35% of the state's electorate, according to the secretary of state's office. Republicans come in a close second at 34.4%, meaning if the GOP can wrangle enough independent voters in 2024, it could set them up for a major pickup.
"I think we have a really great opportunity," Lake told the Washington Examiner last month. "And most of the independents in our state lean conservative, they've just … kind of had it with the Democrat-versus-Republican, typical politics as usual — and maybe they're just sick of the Republican Party or the Democrat Party and they've decided to become independent but they lean conservative."
There are a total of 34 Senate seats up for grabs in the 2024 election cycle. Of these, Democrats must defend 23, compared to just 11 for Republicans — and nearly all competitive seats are held by Democrats, putting them on the defensive as they try to maintain their slim majority.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
Democrats hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate, with the advantage of having Vice President Kamala Harris as a tiebreaker vote if needed. As a result, Republicans only need to flip one Senate seat to win the majority should they win back the White House in 2024. If they don't regain the Oval Office, the party needs to secure two extra Senate seats.
Republicans already received good news after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) announced he would not run for reelection next year, moving his seat from being rated as a toss-up to solid Republican.