BUTLER, PA. — Butler County is many things to many people. Bucolic, industrious, suburban, and historic, it is home to over 130,000 acres of rolling rural farmland, the tiny college town of Slippery Rock, a roaring steel mill that is one of the last producers of flat-rolled electrical and stainless steels for transformers in this country, and the outpost of suburban Pittsburgh where up-and-coming families are moving to start their lives away from the taxes and crime in the city.
It is also a county steeped in history. A young former President George Washington was passing through the present-day township of Harmony, known then as Murdering Town, while on a mission to Fort LeBoeuf in Erie, Pennsylvania, when he was shot at by a French-allied Native American just a few miles from the town. Fifty years later, Harmony became the home of the religious Harmonists, an industrious sect that, today, remains perfectly intact and draws tourists from across the world.
In 1940, the down-on-it’s-luck local car manufacturing company, American Bantam, rose to the occasion to design a sturdy, four-wheel drive vehicle to haul soldiers and heavy artillery in World War II. To celebrate that ingenuity, Jeep lovers take over the city of Butler with the annual Bantam Jeep Heritage Festival that attracts tens of thousands of Jeeps and spectators who partake in off-roading, funnel cakes, live music, and all-around fun.
It is here where the iconic Cleveland-Cliffs Butler Works produces electric distribution transformers for the entire country’s electric grid. It is a company that funnels millions of dollars into the local Butler economy to help pave roads, improve school districts, and fill the bankrolls of local charities.
Even before the presidential debate two weeks ago began the unraveling of President Joe Biden’s reelection prospects, former President Donald Trump was already making progress toward winning the majority of Butler voters’ hearts and minds. And now, in a canny campaign move, Trump is visiting the county Saturday for a rally at the Butler Farm Show fairgrounds.
Just four years ago, Trump won well over 65% of the vote in Butler. But the choice of this location is more than about coming to a county that rewarded him previously. Instead, it is about broadening his coalition beyond the faithful.
Butler’s proximity to the center-right-leaning wealthy suburb of Cranberry, Pennsylvania, as well as working-class voters not just in the state’s Allegheny, Washington, and Beaver counties but also in Mahoning, Trumbull, and Warren just across the Ohio state line, tells you Trump’s plan is to expand his coalition beyond what he has previously earned.
Trump won Pennsylvania over Hillary Clinton by 40,000 votes in 2016, but he lost it to Biden by 80,000 votes in 2024. Ahead of the debate, Trump was already narrowly leading Biden by 2 percentage points, and two weeks later, according to the RealClearPolitics averages, he is ahead by a significant 5 percentage points.
For perspective, the last presidential candidate to take Pennsylvania by 5 percentage points was former President Barack Obama in 2012, a win that was universally declared a landslide.
Trump’s rally comes just days before the Republican National Convention. If reports about its themes are correct, the former president and his team intrinsically understand who the most important voters are due to the focus they have placed on reaching out to the working-class voters who have been hit the hardest by inflation. This means all working-class voters, no matter their ethnicity.
Trump’s outreach also includes the suburban voters who are often unsatisfied with his comportment but are very alarmed by the positions the Biden administration has taken on the border, which affects their families’ safety.
Trump may or may not be accompanied on his visit by one of the final contenders for his vice presidential pick, set to be announced Monday. A natural pick who would fit with Pennsylvania is Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), a child of Appalachia, whose experiences in a dying mill town and ability to lift himself up would appeal to both working-class and suburban voters in Pennsylvania, which includes a large portion of Appalachia, including Butler County.
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Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND) would also be a good fit, particularly because of his experience with energy production, which is a booming industry across Pennsylvania.
The last time Trump visited the state was on the last day of October in 2020, and the intense enthusiasm of the crowd at the Pittsburgh-Butler Regional Airport, a stone’s throw from this Saturday’s event, was unprecedented.