If Russian President Vladimir Putin has his way, the planned Friday meeting with President Donald Trump would cement and legitimize gains won through savagery in exchange for mere promises of future peace.
Trump must not let this latest effort by the Russian dictator to play for time and divide the West succeed.
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In advance of the meeting, Russia has reportedly offered a future ceasefire in exchange for Ukraine’s upfront withdrawal from the entirety of the Donetsk region.
As usual, Russia wishes to lock in gains first, consolidating control over eastern Ukraine before enacting a ceasefire — let alone negotiating a comprehensive agreement to end the war.
Since the beginning of 2024, despite grisly meatgrinder tactics, Russia has only taken additional Ukrainian territory akin in size to the small Caribbean island of Trinidad.
Were he to receive all that he asks at the summit, Putin would leapfrog Ukraine’s defensive lines, placing his forces at the doorstep of Kharkiv, a head start for the inevitable resumption of hostilities.
Putin’s hope is that Trump is anxious enough or desperate enough for a deal that he will accept any Russian proposal. That would be a mistake.
We all know duplicitous Russian promises are not worth the paper they are written on. Witness this weekend, where, despite a summit on the books, Russia continued its usual bombardment of Ukrainian cities.
Russia knows that its floated proposal would create incredible domestic challenges for Ukraine, not least of which is the disillusionment of brave soldiers who risked everything to defend Donetsk, only to have it given away without any real guarantees of future security.
As expected, Ukraine has already rejected the idea of abandoning Donetsk. Over the weekend, alongside European nations, Ukraine presented a counterproposal that calls for a ceasefire as a precondition to talks on any possible future territorial exchanges, which must also be reciprocal.
Putin is attempting to set a trap. Back to the wall with a looming deadline before the U.S. moved toward “very significant” new sanctions on Moscow and towering secondary strictures on countries such as China, which continue to do business with them, the Kremlin reverted to a familiar playbook offering an in-person meeting.
The approach has already achieved its initial objective, blunted the president’s deadline, and staved off new sanctions. For now.
Putin hopes he can feign interest in peace while continuing to sock Ukraine’s civilians and openly sell their stolen children.
The Kremlin does not believe the summit will lead to a breakthrough. It does, however, hope that the one-on-one can be an instrument through which to overcome being viewed in the White House as the obstacle to peace.
Putin’s latest proposal is not a major step toward amity but rather just his latest gambit to stall and divide the West.
There is no indication that Russia is ready to lay down its arms. If anything, buoyed by recent incremental gains, Moscow feels emboldened that time is on its side.
Trump should utilize the summit to turn the tables on Putin. He should announce that unless Russia enacts a full and complete ceasefire within 24 hours, the U.S. will pursue significant sanctions full throttle.
The message: Russia has ignored numerous U.S. ceasefire deadlines, and now time is up.
The meeting itself, a result of Trump’s threats of new sanctions pressure, is a strong indicator that the Kremlin perceives its economy as vulnerable.
Trump, however, must be prepared to follow through on this warning. It is highly likely that only by inflicting more economic pain on Russia and signaling more sustained support for Ukraine will Putin come to understand that the time for peace has arrived.
TRUMP SHOULDN’T BITE ON PUTIN’S POISONED NORTH KOREA LURE
Putin will never give up his imperial dreams of controlling all of Ukraine, but he can be brought to heel on the battlefield if the costs are high enough.
After all, as another Republican president once noted, “You don’t have to make them see the light — just make them feel the heat.”
Daniel Kochis is a senior fellow at the Center on Europe and Eurasia at the Hudson Institute.