The majority of registered Arizona Republican voters said they are most likely to vote for former President Donald Trump in the Republican primary, according to a recent poll, despite recent losses by Trump-aligned candidates in the state.
In a poll from Noble Predictive Insights released on Thursday, 50% of registered Arizona Republicans said they are most likely to support Trump in the Republican presidential primary, while 19% said they would be most likely to support Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL).
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It also found entrepreneur-turned-presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy had 9%, former Vice President Mike Pence had 5%, and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley had 4% support from registered Republican voters in the state. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) are each tied at 2% support. The poll also found that in a hypothetical head-to-head between Trump and DeSantis, Trump leads by more than 20 points.
The results found that despite being underwater statewide, Trump is still liked by three-quarters of Republicans. However, half of Republicans consider themselves members of the party before supporters of Trump.
In the last couple of years, Arizona has transformed from a solid red state to one of the country’s most competitive battlegrounds. In 2020, President Joe Biden’s victory in the state over Trump helped him secure the White House. In December 2020, Arizona had two Democratic senators for the first time since 1952 after Mark Kelly was sworn in. In 2022, every statewide candidate endorsed by Trump lost. It was the first time Democrats held all major statewide positions since 1950.
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Arizona, which Biden narrowly won by just over 10,000 votes in 2020, is one of six presidential swing states that will have a large say in who wins next November's election.
The results of the poll that was conducted in July 2023 come as the state also prepares for another Senate election in 2024. The race could feature incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), who left her party to become an independent last year; Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), the liberal likely Democratic nominee who announced his run in January; and Kari Lake, a polarizing conservative who lost her election for governor last year.