As the fight over the “big, beautiful bill” comes to an end, President Donald Trump maintains political momentum that can push the GOP into a favorable position for 2026, so long as Trump doesn’t get reckless.

Since taking office, around 50% of voters say the country is on the wrong track under Trump, while around 42% say the country is headed in the right direction, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average. That may seem like a negative for Trump, but it is the most optimistic voters have been about the country since the summer of 2021 under Joe Biden, before voters became fed up with Bidenflation and soured on his presidency. Voters are more optimistic now than they were at any point of Barack Obama’s presidency following the summer of his first year in office.

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Crucially, voters are more optimistic now than they were during the entirety of Trump’s first term. Trump’s approval rating is around 46%, while his disapproval rating is just above 50%. At the same point in his first term, Trump was at 40% approval and nearly 55% disapproval. His first five-and-a-half months in office poll better than almost the entirety of his first term, minus his first month in office and the month leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic that ultimately derailed the economy and his reelection campaign.

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Trump is thus far polling underwater on his handling of the economy, which was his strongest issue in his first term. And yet, positive economic signs are continuing to pile up early, including a June jobs report that CNN’s Matt Egan said was “well ahead” of the projected jobs added number. The unemployment rate went down to 4.1% after being expected to go up. Inflation is holding steady as businesses wait for more clarity on Trump’s tariff plans.

The GOP is in a relatively good spot given the negativity of the electorate over the past decade. If Trump can win voters back on the economy (and not worsen inflation with massive tariffs), the GOP would be building on this optimism heading into the 2026 midterm elections and a 2028 presidential election that will usher in a new era for the party. Trump’s more serious, more focused approach to his second term is paying dividends for Republicans already. It paves the way for him to be the first president to have the country on the “right track” in the past 16 years.