President Donald Trump’s assertion that the war in Ukraine “should never have happened” is an accurate one.

It was August 1991, just weeks before Ukraine declared independence from a crumbling Soviet Union. President George H.W. Bush stood before the Ukrainian Parliament and delivered what would become known as the “Chicken Kiev” speech. Rather than encouraging Ukraine’s break for freedom, Bush urged restraint: “Freedom is not the same as independence,” he warned, cautioning against leaving the Soviet orbit too hastily. That instinct of taking into account Russia’s distress or “understanding Russia” would define U.S. foreign policy for more than three decades.

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By 2014, this bore a particularly bitter fruit for Ukraine. Russia annexed Crimea and instigated war in eastern Ukraine, cloaked under the pretense of protecting Russian-speaking populations. Then-President Barack Obama debated whether to provide anti-tank weapons to Ukraine. He decided not to, effectively leaving Kyiv vulnerable and alone. It was under the Trump administration, ironically accused of Russian appeasement, that Ukraine and Georgia finally received tangible military aid.

The weakness demonstrated during Obama’s presidency was not lost on Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia’s confidence grew, manifested starkly in 2015 with its military intervention in Syria. Obama’s strategy of “leading from behind” in Syria created an impression of declining U.S. resolve. Putin throttled the initiative out of Obama’s hands and dominated the situation in Syria until the fall of Bashar Assad in December 2024.

Former President Joe Biden amplified Obama’s missteps. In 2021, as Russia began amassing forces on Ukraine’s borders, the Biden administration reacted predictably, threatening sanctions that Moscow had already anticipated. Biden further weakened deterrence by publicly suggesting a “minor incursion” might not provoke a strong U.S. response, effectively greenlighting limited aggression. Moreover, the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 sent shockwaves globally, signaling American retreat. This debacle undermined U.S. credibility, further convincing Moscow of Washington’s inability or unwillingness to confront challenges decisively. Putin observed closely, understanding that America’s military might was irrelevant without the political will to use it effectively.

In the run-up to Putin’s massive invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. repeatedly chose restraint. In early 2022, Gen. Tod Wolters, then NATO’s supreme allied commander Europe, revealed that American warships had vacated the Black Sea ahead of Russia’s invasion, effectively removing a possible deterrent precisely when it was most valuable. Washington also refused to provide massed weapons supplies to Ukraine until late March 2022, a month after the war had actually begun.

Each of these acts of restraint and retreat was a signal to Moscow, reinforcing Putin’s perception that Washington would not seriously counter Russian ambitions. So Trump is right, the war should never have happened, and it likely wouldn’t have if Washington had chosen decisive deterrence over continued accommodation.

TRUMP BOLSTERS MILITARY’S READINESS TO DETER RUSSIA

As of this month, Russia controls roughly 20% of Ukraine. The war grinds on, not because the West provoked it, but because Moscow remains convinced the West still won’t act decisively to impose consequences for its aggression.

That calculation remains valid.