TRUMP, INFLATION, AND ‘DAY ONE.’ Yesterday’s newsletter noted that the new inflation report to be released Wednesday would bring home the message that “Joe Biden brought inflation on but was unable to fully get rid of it.” And indeed, with the report came word from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that inflation increased 3% on an annual basis in January, up slightly from December, which was up slightly from November, which was up slightly from October, which was up slightly from September. 

The consumer price index has been creeping upward since the fall of 2024. Yes, it fell from the disastrous level of 9.1% in June 2022, but today it is still above the Federal Reserve’s target for getting rid of inflation, a development Austan Goolsbee, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank in Chicago, called “sobering.” In an interview with the New York Times, Goolsbee said, “There’s no question, if we got multiple months like this, then the job is clearly not done.” The new numbers suggest the Fed is certainly not going to cut interest rates anytime soon and might in fact raise them. 

Now the new report shows that prices are still increasing for consumers. Some of the worst areas: Food away from home is up 3.4% from a year ago; meat, poultry, fish, and eggs are up 6.1%; and nonalcoholic beverages are up 2.2%. Shelter is up 4.4%; medical care services are up 2.7%; and transportation services are up 8%. Natural gas is up 4.9%. The bottom line is that even when the rate of inflation goes down, prices still go up, just less quickly than before. Now inflation is increasing, and things are going the wrong way.

Tuesday’s newsletter described the huge steps former President Joe Biden and his Democratic allies in Congress took to feed the fire of inflation in 2021, 2022, and 2023. High prices became the top issue in the 2024 presidential campaign. On the stump, President Donald Trump made many variations of the promise, “Starting on Day One, we will end inflation and make America affordable again.”

What did Trump mean by that? He certainly meant that he would make inflation a top priority and that he would work on it from his first day in office. Did he mean that he would literally end inflation altogether in his first hours in office — that is, inflation would go from 3% on Jan. 20, Inauguration Day, to 0% on Jan. 21? 

Obviously not, but that hasn’t stopped Trump’s Democratic and media critics from holding him to a 24-hour standard. “He [Trump] said, ‘When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on Day One,'” said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) on Wednesday. “Well, today is Day 23, and prices are up 3%. Let me reiterate: Donald Trump said during his campaign that prices would come down on Day One. It is Day 23 and prices are up 3%.” 

Schumer, whose party did so much to fuel inflation, must be delighted to have someone else to blame. Multiply that by the entire Democratic Party and much of the media and you get a sense of today’s discussion.

So here is the question: The inflation we are seeing now is obviously the work of Biden and his Democratic allies. But when will Trump deserve credit or blame for his efforts to lower it? 

During the Obama administration, I noted that then-President Barack Obama inherited a terrible economic mess from George W. Bush. How much time should Obama have to turn things around? “Certainly a year was reasonable,” I wrote, before noting that Obama spent not only his first year blaming Bush for economic problems but also his second and third years doing the same thing. And then Obama kept blaming Bush as he, Obama, ran for a second term.

So should Trump have a year to bring inflation down? Any reasonable standard would say so, but that is not how today’s political discourse works. If Trump — who has gotten a faster start than any president in history, including on economic issues like energy and reducing federal expenditures — is a failure on Day 23, as Schumer said, what will he be six months from now if inflation has not fallen to the Fed’s target level?

Obviously Trump cannot operate on Schumer’s timetable. But the president does need to keep in mind every day that fixing the economy, and especially bringing down prices, is the top reason he was elected, and it is the top thing people want him to do now.

A recent CBS News poll found Trump with a job approval rating of 53%, a number unheard of in Trump’s first term. It also showed that big majorities so far believe that Trump is doing what he promised in the campaign. Much of that belief is based on Trump’s early efforts on the border and immigration, which was the second-most important reason he was elected. But 66% say Trump has not focused enough so far on lowering prices. They don’t expect results immediately, but they want to see Trump working on it. That’s something Trump and the entire White House should always keep at the top of their list of priorities.