Former President Donald Trump flouted political precedent as his popularity and fundraising figures soared in the wake of the 91 felony charges he is facing, but there could be one looming limit to his success.
Recent polls in battleground states may prove to be a warning sign in the 2024 primary race. If Trump were to be convicted in any of the four criminal cases, it could jeopardize enough support from voters in the key states that will help determine whether the GOP can retake the White House or if President Joe Biden will be reelected.
HOUSE REPUBLICANS FILE BIDEN IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY RESOLUTION, SETTING UP VOTE FOR NEXT WEEK
A set of New York Times/Siena College polls last month showed Trump losing around 6% of voters to Biden across five battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania — which could cost the former president a second loss in as many presidential elections. Another MinnPost/Embold Research poll last month found that 30% of GOP voters in Minnesota were less likely to vote for Trump if he were convicted of a crime.
However, Trump's allies on Capitol Hill told the Washington Examiner they are mostly unswayed by the warning signs the polls show.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), one of Trump's staunchest defenders, said the GOP base will not abandon the former president even if he is convicted.
“I've been traveling all over the country for his campaign," Greene said. "Everyone is solidly supporting him. The only theory that exists about that garbage is up here in this stupid city. He’s going to blow away the primary whether he's sitting in a jail cell or not. Everybody hates this government, they think it’s a bunch of communist bulls***, and he’s going to win the general [election]."
Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX), another Trump ally, echoed similar sentiments, accusing Democrats of using criminal indictments to remove Trump from the ballot due to his popularity and position as Biden's top challenger.
"President Trump is leading Biden in nearly every head-to-head national poll, as well as in most battleground states, so it should come as no surprise that if a 'conviction' is reached in one of these sham trials that some Democrat-run states would attempt to prevent Trump from being on the ballot," Hunt said. "We are living through one of the most divisive periods in American history, disqualifying the leading Republican candidate for President and taking the power away from the voters would be a terrible escalation."
But not all House Republicans are so convinced — with some lawmakers predicting a Trump reelection would only lead to another impeachment, especially if the former president is convicted first.
“If Donald Trump is a convicted felon the day he shows up to Congress, you can imagine the impeachment, legitimate impeachment, inquiries and motions that are going to be made," Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) told CNN. “And the impeachment, the crimes aren’t just crimes that have nothing to do with politics or his presidency, they are integrally involved with how he operated the White House and what he did after he lost an election."
Other GOP experts also told the Washington Examiner they do not foresee Trump losing much Republican support in the event of a conviction.
"With every indictment that Trump has gotten, he has increased his lead in Republican primary polling," said Steve Hilding, a Republican strategist and vice president of political consulting firm McShane. "I have to imagine that's going to be the same if the former president is convicted. I think a lot of the GOP base feels that this is a political prosecution, that if Donald Trump were anybody else but the former Republican president he wouldn't be prosecuted like this."
An April 14 Morning Consult poll showed Trump at 55% support among GOP primary voters, just weeks after his first indictment from Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg related to a 2016 hush money payments to pornography actress Stormy Daniels. By June 10, his support increased to 59% after his second indictment over mishandling classified documents. On Aug. 1, the same day as the indictment related to overturning the 2020 election was announced, Trump still maintained 59% support among the GOP.
As of Dec. 7, Trump boasts 61% support according to a RealClearPolitics poll average.
Sarah Chamberlain, president and CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership, concurred with Hilding, claiming GOP voters have generally decided they want Trump as the GOP nominee irrespective of his legal dramas.
"I think his base is with him no matter what," Chamberlain said. "And at this point, the polling shows that his base will be enough to win."
Dan Judy, a Republican pollster, cautioned that much is unknown about Trump's legal future.
"We look at history and how people have behaved in the past and how things have played out in the past to kind of help us figure out how things might play out in the future," Judy said. "And there's no precedent for anything even remotely like what Trump is facing."
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
Judy noted that North Star Opinion Research has polled Republican voters in multiple states on whether they would vote for Trump if he were a convicted felon over Biden, and most said yes. But roughly 20% to 25% have said they would not vote for Trump.
"I mean you only need to lose 5, 10, 15% of that base and you have no chance to win," Judy said. "There are some indications that if he's convicted on one of these felony counts, not a huge number, but enough Republican voters — they're not going to vote for Joe Biden but they might stay home. That could easily sort of swing the election against him."