Former President Donald Trump is holding a steady lead in Iowa despite a revolving door of visits and campaign events to the party's first-in-the-nation state from multiple 2024 Republican contenders.
An Emerson College Polling survey found Trump holding a 42-point lead over Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) with 62% of the vote. DeSantis had 20% of the vote. The survey was conducted from May 19-22 — just days before Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and DeSantis launched their presidential campaigns on Monday and Wednesday, respectively.
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“The former president’s base continues to be voters under 35: 75% of whom support Trump, and voters without a college degree: 70% support Trump. DeSantis’s support is higher among voters with a postgraduate degree, with 29% support, still trailing Trump’s 37% with this group," said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
The poll's results come after both Trump and DeSantis made trips to the Hawkeye State in recent weeks. The pair were supposed to hold dueling events on May 13, but Trump's event in Des Moines was canceled due to a tornado watch in the area.
DeSantis emerged from Iowa with 37 endorsements from prominent local and state Iowa politicians, including state Senate President Amy Sinclair and state House Majority Leader Matt Windschitl. He made his case as the Republican with the best chance to take out President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential race at two events in Sioux Center and Cedar Rapids, one being an appearance at the Feenstra Family Picnic hosted by Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-IA).
However, Trump's constant barrage of attacks against the Florida governor has dragged down DeSantis's poll numbers, particularly in a state like Iowa, which the former president won in 2020. Still, DeSantis is considered to be Trump's most formidable opponent, and early polling shows it will likely come down to the two Florida men in the Republican presidential primary.
Now that DeSantis has launched his bid for the White House, he will return to the Hawkeye State to "kick off" his campaign in Des Moines on May 30, followed by a four-day "Our Great American Comeback" tour throughout Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
Other GOP candidates have made visiting Iowa a priority, as it is a key GOP battleground state heading into 2024. Former Vice President Mike Pence visited the state in March, and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley spent her first week as a presidential candidate in February making trips to Iowa and New Hampshire. Pence and Haley tied with 5% of the vote in the Emerson College poll.
In February, Scott made Iowa the first stop of his "Faith in America" tour that he launched in South Carolina. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy also visited Iowa in May at the same time Trump and DeSantis were stumping as well. Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson made a trip to Iowa in April in the days ahead of his campaign launch.
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Scott took 3% of the vote, Ramaswamy took 2%, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson took 1% in the Emerson College poll.
The poll's sample consisted of 1,064 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.