The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has spent his career calling for “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.” His regime has murdered and maimed thousands of Americans, Israelis, and others. But now the future of both Khamenei and the Islamic Republic hangs in the balance.

Earlier this month, Israel launched a preemptive strike designed to destroy or seriously degrade Iran’s nuclear program and eliminate top officials. In its opening salvo, the Jewish state took out no fewer than two dozen top Iranian military commanders as well as 14 of the country’s top 15 nuclear scientists. The heads of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, aerospace forces, intelligence, and drone and air defense units were eliminated in what is likely the largest decapitation strike in modern military history.

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Israel’s battlefield success helped pave the way for a subsequent United States military operation, which targeted key Iranian nuclear sites. The scope and scale of the joint effort are historic. Iran’s military and intelligence apparatuses are severely damaged, its nuclear capability severely degraded, if not destroyed, and its future is uncertain. Khamenei, however, still lives. 

In a June 27 social media post, President Donald Trump said of the Iranian leader: “His Country was decimated, his three evil Nuclear Sites were OBLITERATED, and I knew EXACTLY where he was sheltered, and would not let Israel, or the U.S. Armed Forces, by far the Greatest and Most Powerful in the World, terminate his life.” The president added: “I SAVED HIM FROM A VERY UGLY AND IGNOMINIOUS DEATH.” 

Previously, both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu intimated that they knew where Khamenei was hiding. Some reports indicate that the Iranian leader, 86 and allegedly ailing, had prepared various successors if he were killed. He knows that the sword of Damocles rests above his head. Both Israel and the U.S. now have leverage, the credible threat of force, that they can use to deter additional attacks, be they against American troops in the Middle East or Americans in the homeland. The Islamic Republic is bowed, but it isn’t broken.

There are good arguments both for and against taking out Iran’s Supreme Leader.

The Trump administration has explicitly sought to avoid, if possible, regime change. Many key officials want to avoid getting sucked into a wider war and the mess of post-war planning. Turmoil would spill over borders, complicating relations with other nations and allies. At present, a limited military operation with clearly defined objectives, preventing Iran from acquiring nukes, has much to offer for an administration that hopes to finally pivot to the threat posed by China.

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It is also unclear just how much oversight Khamenei has over the day-to-day defense planning, but some reports indicate it’s limited. Even if it’s not, his performance has been so poor in this regard that it’s practically an argument for keeping him in place, for now. It’s a chance, if he’s smart enough to take it.

Sadly, with Iran’s ruling clergy issuing edicts calling for Trump’s death, that’s very much an open question.

The writer is a Senior Research Analyst for CAMERA, the 65,000-member, Boston-based Committee for Accuracy in Middle East Reporting and Analysis