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Jun 5, 2025  |  
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Christian Datoc, White House Reporter


NextImg:Trump floats arrest trial balloon to turn legal woes into political windfall

Former President Donald Trump has spent two weeks launching trial balloons regarding his potential indictment over hush-money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels, a move former aides recall as a hallmark of his time in office.

As president, and even before entering office, Trump frequently took to Twitter in efforts to shape public opinion and gauge responses to possible policy proposals.

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In 2018, linguist and University of California, Berkeley professor emeritus George Lakoff broke Trump's process down into four specific phases: preemptive framing, diversion, deflection, and trial balloon.

The Washington Examiner spoke with more than a dozen Trump campaign and administration veterans, all of whom agreed that Trump's recent attempts to get ahead of a potential indictment feel like he's "planning out his defense, and readying the cavalry, in real time."

"Trump's team claimed he didn't make up the idea he would be arrested last Tuesday and that there are legitimate leaks in the [New York County District Attorney Alvin] Bragg's office, but we've already blown past the deadline," one former White House official said. "Now, the MAGA faithful all have it in their heads he's going to get perp-walked as part of some political witch hunt. It's classic Trump."

The former president, the highest-profile Republican to launch a 2024 White House bid, is also using his campaign to rally his defense against Bragg. On Saturday, Trump rallied in Waco, Texas, where he devoted significant time to attacking the district attorney and predicting "potential death and destruction" if he is charged.

"Our opponents have done everything they can to crush our spirit and to break our will," Trump told the crowd of supporters. "But they failed. They’ve only made us stronger. And 2024 is the final battle. It’s going to be the big one. You put me back in the White House, their reign will be over, and America will be a free nation once again."

Trump-backing lawmakers have also taken up the call to defend the former president from "unprecedented abuse of prosecutorial authority."

House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH), Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY), and Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil (R-WI) have all sent letters to Bragg's office requesting him to testify on his investigation's findings.

“We evaluate cases in our jurisdiction based on the facts, the law, and the evidence. It is not appropriate for Congress to interfere with pending local investigations," Bragg wrote in response. "The unprecedented inquiry by federal elected officials into an ongoing matter serves only to hinder, disrupt and undermine the legitimate work of our dedicated prosecutors."

Though Trump's tactics remain largely the same, his latest salvo of trial balloons has had a limited reach compared to his time in office, when Twitter was his preferred method for message control.

Trump has an exclusive contract with Truth Social, his own social media site, that precludes him from premiering content on any other platforms. Trump does get a significant lift from reporters and allies, who frequently repost his statements to Twitter, but only 5 million people follow Trump on Truth Social, compared to nearly 90 million on Twitter.

One former Trump official specifically noted that the former president has started posting again on Facebook in recent days despite having his bans on the platform and sister-site Instagram lifted back in February.

"Pretty clear he wasn't hitting enough eyeballs for his liking," that person said.

Through it all, Trump's messaging has had an immediate impact.

Over the past month, the former president has either extended his lead, or erased his opponent's, in regular tracking polls taken by Monmouth University, Quinnipiac University, and CNN.

Meanwhile, Bragg has become a larger target, both online and in real life.

On Friday, Bragg's office reported receiving a package containing a letter reading, "ALVIN: I AM GOING TO KILL YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!," and white powder. Authorities later determined the powder to be harmless.

Trump himself, however, gave a group of reporters a peek behind his messaging strategy while flying to Waco.

Asked about the potential indictment, Trump said he wasn't "frustrated" with Bragg before appearing to make a statement undercutting predictions of his imminent arrest and decrying any violent protests that could arise along with it.

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"I don’t like violence, and I’m not for violence," Trump told the gathered reporters. "I have no idea what's going to happen. They’ve already dropped the case, from what I understand."

The grand jury in Bragg's inquiry is expected to reconvene on Monday.