President Donald Trump is facing the first breakdown of one of his coveted peace deals, after Rwandan-backed rebels walked away from peace talks and launched a new offensive in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Trump previously vowed to impose severe consequences on any party that violates the peace agreement, but hasn’t followed through on his threat as of early Wednesday afternoon.

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The Trump administration has hailed the president’s peacemaking work to resolve the long-running conflict between Rwanda and the DRC as one of, if not the most, impactful of his several high-profile peace deals, given its status as the 21st century’s single bloodiest conflict. Hopes were high at the June 27th Oval Office ceremony with Trump, Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe, and Congolese Foreign Minister Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner, after signing a peace agreement aiming to end fighting between Kinshasa and the Rwandan-backed insurgency in the eastern DRC, led by the rebel group M23.

Those hopes were dashed this week, when the Aug. 18 deadline came and went with fighting only escalating.

Fighting between the Congolese armed forces and M23 appeared to simmer down, though not halting altogether, on July 19 when leaders from the two signed a declaration of principles. Fighting began again in earnest on Aug. 8, local sources told AFP, with the two sides contesting the town of Mulamba, in South Kivu province.

Local and security sources told the outlet and Le Monde that both sides shuttled in reinforcements on Aug. 10, with fighting escalating to the use of heavy weapons. M23 got the better of the fighting, pushing back FARDC forces.

Both sides accused the other of breaking the ceasefire. M23 spokesman Lawrence Kanyuka accused Kinshasa in a statement of conducting “offensive military maneuvers with a view to a large-scale conflict.”

On Tuesday, Kanyua accused “The kakistocratic regime in Kinshasa” of launching “systematic criminal attacks on densely populated areas using kamikaze drones and heavy artillery.”

Both sides paid lip service to the Doha ceasefire, but stressed that they had a right to respond to the opposing side’s provocations.

Days before fighting exploded, the Sentry analysts Sasha Lezhnev and John Pendergast argued in Foreign Policy that the Trump-mediated agreement was waning, and hadn’t yet changed much on the ground.

“So far, there has been little change in conflict dynamics on the ground, and there is no realistic plan for dismantling the Rwandan-backed rebel group M23 or the DRC-backed militia, the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR). Most concerning is that the financial pressure that helped lead to the agreements is waning,” they wrote.

In the June Oval Office meeting, Trump warned both Rwanda and the DRC that he would implement “very severe penalties, financial and otherwise,” if either side violated the agreement.

The Washington Examiner reached out to the State Department and White House for comment and asked whether the Trump administration would be implementing penalties against either party.

Implementing a ceasefire is difficult due to the ambiguous nature of the links between Kigali and M23, and Kinshasa and allied militias.

A December 2024 U.N. report alleged that M23 had become a de facto extension of the Rwandan Defense Forces. The report argued that roughly 4,000 regular RDF troops were operating alongside M23, sometimes fighting FARDC forces alongside them. M23 itself now resembles a conventional army, with uniforms, modern equipment, and advanced tactics rather than the ragtag militia group it once was.

Most directly, the RDF had “de facto control” over M23 command, and “Every M23 unit was supervised and supported by RDF special forces.”

The report also gave some credence to Kigali’s fears, however, finding that the FARDC “continued to systematically rely on and cooperate with” the FDLR and other armed radical groups.

M23 has come under heavy criticism for alleged human rights violations. A Wednesday report from Human Rights Watch alleged that the group massacred over 140 civilians in farming communities in North Kivu province.

The most violent round of fighting between the DRC and Rwanda-backed militants blew up in January, when M23 launched an offensive against the capital of North Kivu province, Goma, with a population of nearly 2 million. The DRC and United Nations forces were quickly routed, with their commanders abandoning their troops. Pictures and videos of the city in the aftermath showed abandoned uniforms, equipment, weapons, and vehicles. Thousands were killed in the offensive. M23 has since seized Goma and Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu province.

RWANDA AND THE CONGO SIGN US-BROKERED PEACE DEAL TO END 21ST CENTURY’S BLOODIEST CONFLICT

The Trump administration‘s peace deal calls for the withdrawal of Rwandan forces from the DRC over 90 days, the implementation of an economic integration framework within 90 days, and the establishment of a joint security coordination mechanism within 30 days, according to a copy obtained by Reuters.

Over 6 million people have died in the wars in the Congo since 1997.