Former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the Republican primary and is also drawing support from key Democratic coalition partners, especially blacks, Hispanics and younger voters who are abandoning President Joe Biden.
In a trend last seen when former President Ronald Reagan pulled disgruntled blue collar workers from the Democratic base in 1980 and 1984, some voters who backed Biden in 2020 are shifting to Trump due to concerns the economy will worsen if a change in Washington isn’t made soon.
“He is destroying the Obama coalition,” said Trump pollster John McLaughlin, who shared crosstabs from his latest, 1,700-page survey results with Secrets.
“Five percent of the poll who was a Biden 2020 voter is now voting for Trump in 2024. It is roughly a third Hispanics, a third black and they are younger,” he said.
“There is roughly another 5% that voted for Biden in 2020 that is undecided,” he added.
And, he explained, “they are all working class and Democrats. It’s a Trump Democrat, they are Trump working class Democrats.” McLaughlin added, “For us older guys, it's like deja vu from when Reagan had Reagan Democrats.”
The latest McLaughlin & Associates survey echoed several showing Trump maintaining his lead over Biden, 47%-44%.
Trump is also continuing to show strength in the primaries. A new Rasmussen Reports survey shared with Secrets showed that he holds a slight majority of all GOP voters entering the primaries next month.
Rasmussen said that 51% of all Republicans support Trump. His challengers are far behind. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis holds 9%, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley has the support of 13% and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie 9%.
McLaughlin suggested that unlike in the 1980s, the so-called Trump Democrats do not appear likely to return to the Democratic Party because they are younger and less attached to the party.
“They're more impacted by inflation. They're more likely to say that they're worse off than they were four years ago. And it's caused a electoral shift where, you know, the Democrat Party is no longer the party of the working class. They are the party of wine and cheese that says they haven't been impacted by inflation. They've got dirty with government jobs and contracts and they're feeding off the rest of us. And the rest of us have had it,” said McLaughlin.
A shift by blacks away from Biden could be costly because Democrats have long relied on the African American vote. But several polls have show that younter blacks are giving up on the liberals, feeling that the party takes advantage of them.
Politico, for example, found that Trump now has the support of 17% of blacks.
And a survey from John Jordan Polling LLC showed 22% of blacks backing Trump, giving the former president a substantial opening to lure away a key element of the Democratic coalition.