WITH IRAN ON THE ROPES, TRUMP WEIGHS KNOCKOUT PUNCH: It’s one of the most consequential decisions of his second term, and it comes just five months in. Whether it is nobler to stay true to his “America First” isolationist wing of his MAGA base, to whom he promised the U.S. would not become entangled is any more foreign wars, or flex the military muscle only America possesses to remove the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran, and perhaps remake the entire Middle East in the process.
Iran has never been weaker. Its Hezbollah and Hamas proxies have been vanquished. Its ballistic missile launchers and air defenses largely neutralized, and Israeli fighter jets rule the skies. “We have a free highway to Tehran, and we can now pick off the targets that we need in Tehran and other places without having our planes shot down,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Fox this week. “So far, none of them have been shot down.”
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It was an achievement President Donald Trump was quick to take credit for, even though U.S. planes were not flying over Iran. “We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran,” Trump crowed in one of a series of posts on his social media site. “Iran had good sky trackers and other defensive equipment, and plenty of it, but it doesn’t compare to American made, conceived, and manufactured ‘stuff.’ Nobody does it better than the good ol’ USA.” (The proper use of the apostrophe, the good spelling, and lack of capital letters, makes one wonder if he actually wrote it or maybe dictated it to someone.)
But the Truth Social post that attracted the most attention was just two words: “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” It was just ahead of an 80-minute meeting with his national security team in the White House Situation Room, where Netanyahu called in by phone.
Trump, who just days ago professed that a deal with Iran was all but done, now says he is no longer in the mood to negotiate and is weighing his options: remaining on the sidelines, preparing to strike Iran as a final negotiating tactic, or going all-in by unleashing U.S. B-2 stealth bombers with their 30,000-pound bunker-busting bombs to entomb Iran’s deep-buried nuclear facilities at Natanz and Frodow.
To drive home the point that his “patience is wearing thin,” Trump also threatened to assassinate Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers.” Trump said, ending the post, as is his habit these days, as if it were a routine inter-office memo. “Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
TRUMP: ‘WE NOW HAVE COMPLETE AND TOTAL CONTROL OF THE SKIES OVER IRAN’
VANCE: ‘THE PRESIDENT HAS EARNED SOME TRUST ON THIS ISSUE’: Perhaps the most cogent explanation of what Trump is considering came from a social media post from his vice president midday yesterday that seemed aimed at his MAGA base.
“First, POTUS has been amazingly consistent, over 10 years, that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon,” J.D. Vance said, in what is for X, a lengthy post. “Over the last few months, he encouraged his foreign policy team to reach a deal with the Iranians to accomplish this goal. The president has made clear that Iran cannot have uranium enrichment. And he said repeatedly that this would happen one of two ways — the easy way or the ‘other’ way.”
The U.S. does not want to deprive Iran of a peaceful, nuclear energy program, Vance argued. “Iran could have civilian nuclear power without enrichment, but Iran rejected that. Meanwhile, they’ve enriched uranium far above the level necessary for any civilian purpose,” Vance argued. “It’s one thing to want civilian nuclear energy. It’s another thing to demand sophisticated enrichment capacity.”
“The president has shown remarkable restraint in keeping our military’s focus on protecting our troops and protecting our citizens. He may decide he needs to take further action to end Iranian enrichment,” Vance wrote. “Of course, people are right to be worried about foreign entanglement after the last 25 years of idiotic foreign policy. But I believe the president has earned some trust on this issue.”
VANCE APPEALS TO MAGA BASE AHEAD OF TRUMP POSSIBLY TAKING ‘FURTHER ACTION’ IN IRAN
GRAHAM: “THE SUN IS ABOUT TO SET ON IRAN’S NUCLEAR AMBITIONS:’ One of the loudest voices urging Trump to follow through on his “unconditional surrender” demand is Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Trump’s occasional golf partner, who at times has the president’s ear.
“Unconditional surrender is a sign, is a term often used for war,” Graham said in an appearance on Fox News yesterday. “It suggests to me that the president believes that the nuclear program cannot be ended through diplomacy.”
“They really do mean ‘Death to Israel,’ but they also mean ‘Death to America.’ There’s no doubt in my mind that if the ayatollah had a nuclear weapon, he would use it to destroy Israel as part of his religious agenda,” Graham told Fox anchor John Roberts. “So it is my belief that President Trump understands the threat the ayatollah presents to us, not just Israel, and that he will at the end of the day help Israel finish the job.”
“They need our help, Israel does, to take out Fordow. They need help from us. I’m hoping the president will provide Israel the help they need to finish the job of the last nuclear site underground,” Graham said. “And I believe the sun is about to set on Iran’s nuclear ambitions.”
Over on CNN, Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) urged cautious restraint and said the priority should be protecting American lives. “If America is directly involved in a direct threat towards us, yes, you act first to be able to protect American lives. If not, no, you do not,” he told anchor Kasie Hunt. “There are 700,000 Americans that live in Israel. So, what happens there does affect America, because 700,000 Americans are in Israel right now.”
“I hear a lot of conversation about that, say it’s going to take Americans to be able to take on Natanz because it’s deeply buried in a mountain,” Lankford said. “Everybody seems to forget that there’s also enriched uranium, about 900 pounds, that’s actually stored in that area. So, when you’re talking about dropping a bunker-busting bomb, you’re talking about burying enriched uranium inside of a mountain tunnel system. That may not be the best thing for us to do.”
US ‘BUNKER-BUSTER’ BOMBS MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH TO DESTROY IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM, EXPERTS WARN
Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre.
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NOTE TO READERS: Daily on Defense will not publish tomorrow as we observe the Juneteenth federal holiday.
HAPPENING TODAY: MUST-SEE TV: There will no doubt be high interest in what Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine have to say about possible U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran war, whether U.S. intelligence agrees with the Israeli assessment that Iran is racing to make a nuclear weapon, and how Ukraine is holding up under intense Russian bombing, when the pair testify before the Senate Armed Services Committee at 9 a.m.
For now, Hegseth says the U.S. role in Israel’s war with Iran is purely defensive, and the surging of additional aircraft and a second aircraft carrier strikes group is designed to protect U.S. forces in the region, along with Israeli allies.
“America First means we’re going to defend American personnel and American interests. So, when you see jets, and you see air defense assets and counter-UAS assets, that’s because my job as the secretary of defense is to ensure that our people are safe and that we’re strong,” Hegseth said on Fox News Monday.
“What you’re watching in real-time is peace through strength and America First. Our job is to be strong. We are postured defensively in the region to be strong, in pursuit of a peace deal,” Hegseth said. “And President Trump’s made it clear it’s on the table. The question is whether Iran will take it.”
PUTIN HOLD FORTH: Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to take questions from international journalists today when he holds court on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. The format is a “roundtable session with senior news leaders of international news agencies,” according to The Associated Press, which says it’s one of the invitees.
The rare opportunity for Western reporters to question the Russian president comes as Putin has unleashed one of the deadliest drone attacks on the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, where the death toll has reached 15 dead, and 130 people wounded, mostly all civilians, or as President Volodymyr Zelensky called them “ordinary people.”
“Ukrainians, our families, endured a very difficult night – one of the largest attacks since the beginning of this war: 440 Shaheds — Iranian drones — and 32 missiles, including ballistic ones,” Zelensky said as he met with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Canada yesterday.
“Carney announced new military aid for Ukraine: drones, helicopters, and ammunition worth over $2 billion,” Ukraine said, including the next tranche of more than $2 billion financed by proceeds from frozen Russian assets.
DIRECTOR NON-GRATA? One of the most interesting details in the New York Times behind-the-scenes account of the Sunday, June 8 Camp David meeting in which President Trump was first advised by CIA Director John Ratcliffe that Israel was prepared to attack Iran with or without U.S. support was the tidbit that Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard was absent.
“The president sat at the head of the table in a rustic conference room inside Laurel Lodge. There were no slides, only maps prepared by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine. For two and a half hours, he and Mr. Ratcliffe described their expectation of an imminent Israeli attack,” the Times reported. “Ms. Gabbard was on National Guard duty that weekend and was not included in the meeting.”
While Gabbard is, at least on paper, the nation’s top spymaster, she wasn’t just on Guard duty. She was not invited to the meeting, Fox News reported.
Returning from the G7 summit, late Monday night, Trump dismissed Gabbard’s March testimony to Congress that, “The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003,” out of hand. “I don’t care what she said, I think they were very close to having,” Trump told reporters.
Vice President J.D. Vance came to Gabbard’s defense in a post on X. “First off, Tulsi’s testimony was in March, and a lot has changed since then,” Vance wrote. “Second, if you look at what she said then, her point about uranium enrichment is consistent with what I wrote.”
TRUMP AT ODDS WITH GABBARD AND INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY ON IRAN’S NUCLEAR PURSUIT
MAKING GREENLAND PART OF THE US: President Trump is taking a baby step, but a significant one, in his campaign to coerce Greenland, a territory of NATO ally Denmark, to become part of the United States, though not a state.
The Pentagon announced yesterday that, henceforth, the U.S. Northern Command, which is responsible for protecting the homeland, that is, the United States, will also be responsible for the defense of Greenland.
“Consistent with the President’s intent and the Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance, this change will strengthen the Joint Force’s ability to defend the U.S. homeland, contributing to a more robust defense of the western hemisphere and deepening relationships with Arctic allies and partners,” Chief Pentagon Spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement.
Greenland was previously in the U.S. European Command area of responsibility.
TRUMP MOVES GREENLAND INTO NORTHERN COMMAND RESPONSIBILITY
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Trump: ‘We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran’
Washington Examiner: Trump at odds with Gabbard and intelligence community on Iran’s nuclear pursuit
Washington Examiner: US ‘bunker-buster’ bombs might not be enough to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, experts warn
Washington Examiner: Israel kills Iranian military chief just days after assassinating his predecessor
Washington Examiner: Who are the top Iranian officials killed by Israel strikes?
Washington Examiner: Iranian Crown Prince calls for ‘nationwide uprising,’ presents himself as transitional leader
Washington Examiner: Trump moves Greenland into Northern Command responsibility
Washington Examiner: Trump to sign another executive order stalling TikTok ban
Washington Examiner: Kim Jong Un deploys 6,000 personnel to Kursk with North Korean memorial planned
Washington Examiner: Trump announces 11 am flag raising as world awaits possible US military action in Iran
Washington Examiner: Ted Cruz sees Iranian nuclear hit on US electric grid, ‘millions’ killed
Washington Examiner: Carlson hounds Cruz about US involvement in Israeli strikes on Iran: ‘You just said we’
Washington Examiner: Carney weighs paying for Trump’s Golden Dome amid US-Canada trade talks
Washington Examiner: Hugo Gurdon Opinion: The only talks with Iran should be about its capitulation
New York Times: How Trump Shifted on Iran Under Pressure From Israel
AP: How Else Could Iran Retaliate Against Israel?
Military.com: Air Force’s Bunker-Buster Bomb Could Take Out Iran Nuclear Facility, But Israel Hints at Other Options
Defense One: ‘If Russia is Coming, Then We Will Bring the War to Russia’: Inside NATO’s Muscular New Deterrence Plans
AP: North Korea Plans to Send Military Construction Workers and Deminers to Russia
Kyiv Independent: ‘A Brutal Strike’ — Massive Russian Missile and Drone Attack Hits Kyiv, Killing 14, Injuring at Least 117
AP: Appeals Court Seems Likely to Keep Trump in Control of National Guard Deployed in Los Angeles
AP: Trump administration demands action from 36 countries to avoid travel ban
Reuters: China’s Military Conducts Patrols in South China Sea, Warns Philippines
Bloomberg: Warren Slams Hegseth Decision to Slash Pentagon Weapons Testing Office
Air & Space Forces Magazine: US Air Force Reaper Drones to Test New Anti-Hacking Software
The War Zone: MQ-9B Airborne Early Warning Variant Could Fill Major Aerial Surveillance Gaps
Defense One: Boeing Says It Can Build F/A-XX and F-47, Rejecting SecNav’s Concerns
Air & Space Forces Magazine: B-52 Engine Replacement Slowed by Inlet Issues
Inside Defense: Pentagon Solicits Prototypes for Joint Battle Manager to Unify Guam Missile Defense
Military.com: Air Force Lowered Annual Recruiting Goal Due to Budget Woes, But Still on Track to Hit Target This Month
THE CALENDAR:
WEDNESDAY | JUNE 18
8 a.m. 7920 Jones Branch Dr., McLean, Virginia — Potomac Officers Club Army Summit with Army Chief Information Officer Leonel Garciga https://potomacofficersclub.com/events/2025-army-summit/
9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “The Department of Defense Budget Request for FY2026 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth; Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine; and Bryn Woollacott MacDonnell, performing the duties of Defense undersecretary/comptroller http://www.armed-services.senate.gov
10 a.m. 616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies and Korea Foundation discussion: “Looking Forward: The Future of U.S.-Japan-Korea Trilateral Relations,,” with Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ); Sen. Andy Kim (D-NJ).; Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK); Kurt Campbell, former deputy secretary of state and chairman and co-founder, Asia Group; and Han-koo Yeo, senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics and former trade minister of Korea https://www.csis.org/events/looking-forward-future
10 a.m. 2100 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies National Security Symposium: “The China Challenge: U.S. National Security Policy in the 21st Century,” with Alexander Yui Tah-ray, representative of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the U.S https://fedsoc.org/conferences/2025-national-security-symposium
10:30 a.m. — Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing: “A Review of the President’s FY2026 Budget Request for the Army,” with testimony from Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll and Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George http://appropriations.senate.gov
10:30 a.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “NATO Summit 2025: An Assessment of Transatlantic Security Cooperation,” with testimony from Alina Polyakova, president and CEO, Center for European Policy Analysis; and Peter Rough, senior fellow and director, Hudson Institute Center on Europe and Eurasia http://foreign.senate.gov
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Noon Report” virtual discussion: “Modernizing Army Personnel Management and Readiness,” with Lt. Gen. Brian Eifler, deputy Army chief of staff; and Marshall “Will” Williams, former acting assistant Army secretary for manpower and reserve affairs https://www.ausa.org/events/noon-report/ltg-brian-eifler
THURSDAY | JUNETEENTH — FEDERAL HOLIDAY
10:30 a.m. White House Ellipse — National Juneteenth Observance Foundation Juneteenth People’s Parade, with U.S. Colored Troops and Buffalo Soldier reenactors leading the parade from the Martin Luther King Memorial and eastbound on Constitution Ave. to the White House Ellipse, where the 257th Army Band, also known as the President’s Band, will join the marchers ; https://www.national-juneteenth.org/
TUESDAY | JUNE 24
TBA The Hague, Netherlands — The Netherlands hosts 2025 NATO Leaders Summit June 24-25.