The possibility of a future Trump presidency is hanging over the NATO summit in Washington, D.C., as President Joe Biden struggles to consolidate support for his campaign. Biden has often criticized former President Donald Trump’s approach to NATO in his speeches, claiming, “Trump wants to eviscerate NATO.” Biden is wrong, as Trump’s pugnacity and unpredictability could be the necessary spark to strengthen NATO in an increasingly dangerous world.
Before discussing the United States’s approach to NATO, it is important to remember the state of Europe’s militaries. The United Kingdom is the biggest military spender and hasn’t been able to field an armored division since the Gulf War. Germany, the wealthiest European country, could only fight for two days before its military ran out of ammunition. NATO is a military alliance, not a social club, and to fulfill its priorities, it needs militarily strong members.
To encourage our reticent European allies to spend more, the U.S. needs a forceful representative willing to pressure European governments. But the aura of the presidency is being diminished at this week’s NATO summit as Biden’s age takes center stage.
“It’s a very weird feeling to be in Europe listening to the president of the United States, and you’re more stressed about whether he will go off script than being excited to listen to the leader of the free world,” one senior European diplomat said.
Compared to Biden’s frailty, Trump’s aggressive negotiating style would certainly put European leaders on notice. Trump understands rhetoric as a tool to be wielded, a view that can lead the former president to say contradictory things depending on the timing and his audience. While this unpredictability can make our allies anxious, this anxiety is also what will compel them to start making the necessary changes for their military preparedness. Future NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said Trump “was completely right in forcing us to live up to the 2% commitment.”
Trump is not an isolationist or appeaser, despite what others might say. Trump was the first president to send lethal military aid to Ukraine. He also launched a cyberattack on a Russian troll farm. With the concern of the full-scale war in Ukraine, Trump is once again not a fool. Behind his boasts of ending the war in a day, he told an interviewer, “I would tell Putin, if you don’t make a deal, we’re going to give [Zelensky] a lot. We’re going to [give Ukraine] more than they ever got if we have to.”
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While a direct conflict between Russia and NATO is unlikely, it could occur and is the reason NATO exists. If it were to happen, it is probable that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s move would resemble the bite-and-hold strategy that he employed in Ukraine in 2014 and Georgia in 2008. This would require militaries ready to respond immediately in the region, a task that demands competent European allies and a decisive president. We currently lack both of those factors.
What makes Trump different is he has a different view of NATO that expects more out of our European allies. While they have increased spending in response to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, more is still needed. In a global world where the U.S. faces threatening powers in Europe, East Asia, and the Middle East, we need strong allies that we can depend on.