


President Donald Trump’s decision to blunt the political impact of a government shutdown is giving Democrats fewer reasons to back down from their demands and raising the prospect of an even longer impasse.
Almost two weeks into the shutdown, which began on Oct. 1, Trump decided on Saturday to divert money to pay the 1.3 million active service members who were at risk of missing a paycheck on Wednesday. Before that, he opted to use tariff revenue to keep a welfare program for new mothers and their babies afloat.
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The decisions suggest Trump sees political risk for Republicans, a finding backed up by public polling that shows both parties sharing blame for the shutdown. But the carveouts also deny Republicans the type of leverage that could actually force Democrats, who want concessions on healthcare in exchange for their votes, to blink.
In past shutdown fights, troops have generally been paid, and Republicans were ready to place the blame squarely at the feet of Democrats. The House has been gone for almost a month, with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) refusing to reconvene until Democrats accept the six-week funding bill that passed his chamber last month.
Similarly, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) sent senators home on Thursday, effectively letting the deadline to process troops’ paychecks pass.
“Well, there’s a military pay bill right here,” Thune said on Friday, waving a copy of the House-passed spending bill that reopens all government operations. “All they have to do is pick it up at the desk, give us five votes, and the military gets paid.”
So far, the Senate has taken seven votes on the bill, but only three senators who caucus with Democrats have crossed party lines to vote with Republicans. Eight are needed to overcome the filibuster as GOP leadership prepares an eighth vote for Tuesday evening.
The White House is not entirely averse to imposing political pain on Democrats. On the first days of the shutdown, Trump’s budget director, Russ Vought, announced the cancellation of billions in projects, including money for transportation projects in New York, the home state of Democratic congressional leadership.
The administration subsequently began to lay off an initial batch of more than 4,000 federal workers, following through on Trump’s threat to test the boundaries of his power in a shutdown.
But the steps have not been enough to move Democrats off their negotiating position: an “ironclad” commitment that enhanced Obamacare subsidies will be extended before they expire at the end of the year.
Trump has expressed openness to reaching a deal on the subsidies after the government reopens, but it will be difficult for Republicans to agree to more than a watered-down version, given opposition from a large segment of the GOP conference in each chamber.
The specter of a renegade president acting unilaterally in a shutdown was the basis for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) caving in a March fight over funding, and two of the three Democratic-caucusing senators who voted for the GOP bill this time around have cited that reasoning to defend their vote.
Schumer and his Democratic colleagues, however, have generally ignored Trump’s threats, reasoning that he was planning the layoffs anyway and was canceling funding, in their eyes, illegally, whether the government was in a shutdown or not.
The threats have also created a spate of headlines for Democrats to exploit after Trump fired, and then rehired, disease outbreak specialists and slashed departments responsible for mental health and special education. The president has told reporters he is specifically targeting programs that are “Democrat-oriented.”
With military pay off the table, Republicans are emphasizing other risks of a government shutdown in a bid to pressure Democrats. Johnson noted that more than 2 million federal workers will begin to go unpaid at the end of the month and have already missed some of their usual paycheck on Friday, when the government paid for work that mostly took place before funding lapsed.
Congressional Republicans have also noted that staffing shortages are expected to drive delays at airports across the country. The government has kept large swaths of federal employees working without pay, including Transportation Security Administration agents and air traffic controllers, but there has been a spike in workers calling out sick.
The big pressure point for Republicans, at least according to Democrats, is Obamacare open enrollment, which begins on Nov. 1. Insurance companies will be sending notices warning of premium increases that Democratic leaders hope will be politically untenable for the White House.
Last week, Schumer declared that “every day gets better for us,” a perceived misstep that Republicans were quick to denounce as tone-deaf. But Democrats are betting that a fight they have centered on healthcare, an issue that polls well with voters, will eventually put Republicans in a tough spot politically.
“I think Republicans are very anxious to change the topic from a 114% increase in premiums, and they’re a little desperate to change the news cycle, and this is their latest attempt,” said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI), who is slated to become the No. 2 Senate Democrat in the next Congress.
Indeed, after Democrats began their Obamacare messaging, the White House rolled out healthcare announcements, including a pharmaceutical deal to provide cheaper prescriptions through a new portal dubbed “TrumpRx.”
Republicans note that Democrats are still blocking the military’s regular paychecks, even if Trump made what could be a one-time accommodation by redirecting funding earmarked for research and development.
The money Trump found for WIC, the entitlement that allows low-income mothers to buy infant formula and other family staples, is also a temporary Band-Aid, with the administration predicting it will tide the program over through October.
In the interim, Republicans are framing Trump’s interventions as a positive that will build goodwill in the war of public opinion.
“I look forward to the mental gymnastics Democrats perform as they attempt to attack President Trump for paying the troops and helping families in poverty put food on the table,” a senior GOP Senate aide said on condition of anonymity. “If Democrats don’t like the president’s tactics, they should vote to open the government.”
Thune has floated a token vote on the Obamacare subsidies in a bid to move past the impasse, something Democratic leadership swiftly rejected on Thursday. But neither side is willing to make a concession that could be seen as capitulation.
THUNE GIVES DEMOCRATS LAST SHOT AT ‘UNSERIOUS GOVERNMENT FUNDING PROPOSAL
Senate Republicans were allowing the Democrats to bring forward a dueling proposal on government funding, which also failed each time it was brought to the floor, but Thune has decided he will no longer extend that courtesy after Tuesday’s funding vote.
Democrats, for their part, are continuing to show up at the House despite Johnson keeping the chamber on recess for the duration of the shutdown, with Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) planning a Wednesday press event on the Capitol steps.