President Donald Trump is blaming renewable energy sources for rising electricity prices, although the reality is more complex. 

This week, the president said that wind and solar projects are driving rising electricity costs, claiming that states that have heavily leaned on the green energy alternatives are seeing record energy price hikes. 

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“Any State that has built and relied on WINDMILLS and SOLAR for power are seeing RECORD BREAKING INCREASES IN ELECTRICITY AND ENERGY COSTS,” Trump wrote on Truth Social Wednesday. “THE SCAM OF THE CENTURY! We will not approve wind or farmer destroying Solar. The days of stupidity are over in the USA!!!”

Electricity prices trending upward

Electricity prices have been increasing nationwide for the last two and a half years. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that electricity prices rose by 5.5% for the year ending in July, more than double the overall inflation rate. 

Prices are only expected to increase. The Energy Information Administration forecasts that average residential electricity prices in the United States will jump from 16.48 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2024 to around 17.90 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2026. 

Major grid operators, including PJM Interconnection, have announced large rate hikes in recent weeks. Wholesale electricity costs are set to jump by 22%. When the rates take effect in the summer of 2026, PJM consumers are expected to see a 1.5-5% increase in energy bills. 

The underlying cause

The evidence, however, does not broadly support Trump’s focus on renewables as the cause of rising prices.

The deployment of wind and solar technologies has steadily grown over the last few decades, and was accelerated under former President Joe Biden as his administration sought to reduce reliance on traditional fossil fuels. 

During that time frame, electricity prices generally mirrored the inflation rate, due to minimal growth in electricity demand. That all seemed to change when soaring demand from data centers entered the picture, and the race for artificial intelligence truly took off. 

The Center for Strategic and International Studies has forecast that by 2030, AI data centers in the United States will consume upward of 84 gigawatts. Last year, data centers consumed only around four gigawatts. 

Grid operators have warned that demand growth could outpace the amount of new generation added to the grid, potentially leading to greater reliability risks, blackouts, and higher costs for consumers. 

The role of renewables

Part of this strain is caused by more frequent cases of extreme weather damaging aging transmission and interconnection infrastructure. Critics have long accused utilities and grid operators of failing to properly plan necessary upgrades and grid expansions to support and connect growing generation.

Meanwhile, renewable energy sources have been added to the grid relatively slowly, failing to keep pace with the retirement of facilities powered by fossil fuels.

Many Republicans have denounced wind and solar, pointing out that these green alternatives have lower capacity factors than traditional fossil fuels due to their intermittent nature.

For critics like Daniel Turner, founder and executive director of energy policy non-profit Power the Future, removing traditional generation from the grid with the promise of installing cleaner alternatives has been the “biggest factor” behind electricity price hikes. 

“It is wind and solar, because they’re completely unreliable and very expensive and heavily subsidized,” Turner told the Washington Examiner. 

“My point is that we tear down what has been working with the promise that we will build X or Y, and it’s odd we never build X or Y first and get it up and running, and then say, ‘Okay, since this is doing the job, now we can take down this coal plant or shut this, this natural gas plant or nuclear plant,’” Turner said. 

Since 2000, around 780 coal power units, meaning individual generators capable of producing energy, have retired, according to estimates from the New York Times. And in 2017, energy nonprofit Resources for the Future estimated that around 816 natural gas units and 791 petroleum-fired units had retired since 2005.

The Trump administration has repeatedly slammed its predecessor for accelerating the phase-out of fossil fuels, affirming that it will reverse course away from intermittent energy sources. 

A White House official told the Washington Examiner this week that de-incentivizing coal, oil, and natural gas while boosting wind and solar can lead to higher prices due to greater reliance on fossil fuels in off-peak hours. 

The official claimed that the “most expensive energy states” are most likely to have the highest percentage of renewables in their energy portfolios, while also being “subject to Democrat green policies.”

The push back

Clean energy advocates have pushed back against this narrative.

Iowa, Kansas, and Oklahoma have been among the leaders in adding solar and wind generation over the last decade and a half. At the same time, they have seen some of the smallest residential electricity price hikes. 

A 2024 analysis conducted by climate and energy research firm Energy Innovation Policy and Technology found that, between 2010 and 2023, Iowa alone saw its share of electricity generated by wind jump from 15% to nearly 60%. During that same time frame, Iowa saw a residential rate increase of less than 2%, slower than at least 42 other states. 

More recently, EIA data compiled by American Clean Power shows that the top 10 states with the largest share of renewables in their energy makeup have also seen significantly smaller electricity price hikes over the last year when compared to the national average (a roughly 2.5% increase).

The industry group found that red-leaning states, including Iowa, South Dakota, Kansas, and Oklahoma, saw some of the largest renewable share growth between 2024 and 2025 to date, while also experiencing as much as five percentage points less in electricity price change than the national average. 

Meanwhile, states with some of the lowest renewable shares, such as Connecticut, Alabama, Louisiana, and Tennessee, saw as much as five percentage points more in price change than the average. 

A complex issue

Jason Grumet, CEO of American Clean Power, told the Washington Examiner this is evidence that the president’s claims about renewable sources’ effect on electricity prices “are demonstrably wrong.” 

“Electricity prices are complicated, but basic supply and demand economics are pretty straightforward. Demand for power in this country is growing for good reasons, and this administration is taking power off the grid,” Grumet said, referring to the administration’s increased restrictions on wind and solar development. 

“When demand goes up and supply goes down, consumers suffer…the administration clearly realizes that they’ve created a problem. Their first step appears to be to try to blame others,” he added. 

Trump’s Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, has acknowledged that renewables have helped keep some electricity prices low. 

In an interview published this week, Wright said wind and solar can be successful depending on the context. The secretary pointed to Alaska as an example, saying renewables can help meet growing energy needs, as the state lacks the necessary infrastructure to transport traditional fuels. 

Many have also pointed out that some of the highest electricity prices seen this year in regions like New England have largely been driven by rising natural gas fuel and infrastructure prices.  

The EIA confirmed to the Washington Examiner that the cost of natural gas has been one of the “main drivers” for continued increases in electricity prices, particularly as natural gas prices were historically low in 2024. 

Fossil fuel advocates have blamed Democratic policies over this trend, pointing to obstacles put in place under the Biden administration to disincentivize the expansion of natural gas infrastructure in New England while other traditional resources were pulled from the grid. 

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“I’m not in the mood to shutter wind and solar, if they’re there, they’re there, and we have to deal with it,” Turner told the Washington Examiner, asserting that renewables have compounded the supply and demand issue. 

“A lot of working reliable electricity production was shuttered in the Biden administration and was not replaced with anything else replaceable, replaced with promises. And that is a huge challenge that this administration is going to face,” he said.