DES MOINES, Iowa — Iowa caucusgoers are about to be provided with their first side-by-side comparison of former President Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) as each candidate contends with a pivotal moment in their respective 2024 primary campaigns.
But as special counsel Jack Smith appears poised to indict Trump for a second time, fresh off adding more charges to the original case, the former president's popularity in the Hawkeye State has only increased at DeSantis's expense before the Iowa Republican Party’s Lincoln Day Dinner this Friday.
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The Iowa Republican Party’s Lincoln Dinner is a critical opportunity for candidates to pitch themselves to the state’s caucusgoers, activists, and officials, according to University of Iowa politics professor Timothy Hagle.
“What makes the RPI’s Lincoln Dinner a bigger deal is that it's the state party putting it on and those attending will be from across the state,” Hagle told the Washington Examiner. “The event will draw many elected officials, as well as members of the county Republican organizations and other activists. That means it's a very good place for candidates — and their staffs — to schmooze with the people that will be attending the caucuses, but also those who can influence others.”
That "influence” can include encouraging others to caucus for a candidate, but it can additionally encompass finding precinct representatives for the candidate or volunteers willing to door knock and phone call on their behalf, per Hagle.
“One particular advantage of the RPI's Lincoln Dinner is that the elected officials who attend will usually have their own campaign organization,” he said. “If they support a particular candidate, they can make available their organization or at least their expertise in a particular district or county. At a very practical level that might involve information on who to call to rent or reserve a space for a campaign event.”
For caucusgoers, however, the Lincoln Dinner is another chance to hear from the candidates, despite Trump’s dominance in early primary polls, Hagle added.
“There are sometimes opportunities for those attending to interact with the candidates more informally in smaller groups, but even when the main activity is a series of speeches it allows those attending to see how the candidates do in terms of their speaking skills, their focus on the issues, and their ability to relate to voters,” he said. “Candidates need to make their case, but in a way that leaves the attendees energized and ready for the political fight ahead, either the caucuses or the general election.”
Trump has been selective with his campaign appearances, though; in the instance of this month's Christians United for Israel event, he did not receive an invitation. In another example, he is declining to participate in Gov. Kim Reynolds's (R-IA) "Fair Side" chats during next month’s Iowa State Fair, in part because she will not endorse him and she introduced DeSantis at his first in-person event in the state as a presidential candidate. Meanwhile, Reynolds has been adamant about remaining neutral and was at Sen. Tim Scott's (R-SC) town hall in Ankeny on Thursday.
Although he has engaged in more retail politics than he did in 2015, 2016, and 2020, Trump has acknowledged the likelihood he will not debate next month in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, based on his, on average, 34 percentage point advantage over DeSantis and the rest of the field, regardless of a likely third and fourth indictment, one by Smith and another by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis in Georgia.
The Lincoln Dinner, too, will be DeSantis’s first appearance at a so-called cattle call event amid his campaign reset and restructure, which incorporated firing about 40% of his original staffers. Campaign manager Generra Peck kept her position, and former digital director Ethan Eilon was promoted to her deputy.
Top DeSantis advisers hosted a donor retreat last weekend in Park City, Utah, to strategize amid concerns regarding his progress and fundraising. While DeSantis raised $20.1 million during 2023’s second quarter, about two-thirds came from donors who cannot contribute any more money, and $3 million can only be used during a general election. He has already spent $7.9 million.
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DeSantis launched his first bus tour in Iowa on Thursday, this one organized by his super PAC Never Back Down. Last week, the governor expanded his media outreach and sat down for a formal interview with CNN, coinciding with his release of more policy papers.
"In Florida, he won by three, I won by 20," DeSantis said Thursday in Chariton, Iowa, of Trump. "That's really the formula that you need to be able to beat Biden and to be able to beat the Democrats. We're not getting a mulligan on 2024. You either go, you get the job done, or you don't, and so I will get the job done."