President Donald Trump made lowering prices a key part of his successful 2024 campaign for a second, nonconsecutive term.

“Starting on Day One, we will end inflation and make America affordable again,” Trump swore last year during a Montana campaign event. “This election is about saving our economy.”

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A bit over six months after Trump reassumed the presidency, the results are mixed.

Inflation is down sharply from the record 8% high during the administration of former President Joe Biden. Inflation, as measured by the producer price index, declined by three-tenths of a percentage point to 2.3% for the year ending in June.

But everyday costs continue to rise, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In May, prices were 2.4% higher than a year before. Shelter costs jumped 3.9%, and food nearly 3%, even as energy prices fell 3.5% — mostly due to massive drops in gasoline prices in March and May.

The Trump administration has attempted to control the narrative on prices.

When prices ticked up in February, Trump, posting on social media, blamed the Biden administration. A populist who argues inflation will fall as more jobs return to the United States, he described the price rise as a “period of transition” — even as financial markets grew uneasy about his widening global tariff war. Trump has repeatedly floated steep tariffs on imports, only to delay or scale them back.

Once inflation began slowing down, Trump declared victory.

“Consumers have been waiting for years to see pricing come down,” he said in May on Truth Social. “NO INFLATION …”

The Federal Reserve’s long-term goal is 2% annual inflation, which it believes will keep the economy growing and prices stable.

Kurt Couchman, a senior fellow in fiscal policy for Americans for Prosperity, said Trump’s claims hold up, depending on the time frame.

“Inflation only seems high when looking at the last year, which includes many months of Biden-era policies like regulatory restrictions and the end-of-term spending geyser,” he told the Washington Examiner.

Other economists portray the economy as stable, albeit uncertain.

Jai Kedia, a Research Fellow with the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute, said the current inflation rate doesn’t raise alarm, but uncertainty over future policy clouds the outlook.

What troubled Kedia was what could happen to prices in the future, citing the unclear tariff situation. “It is hard to make any predictions,” he told the Washington Examiner, “because the administration keeps changing its tariff strategy.”

Surveys of consumers and business owners show a similar feeling.

Most people think prices will remain steady in the next year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on July 8. Business owners gave a similar opinion to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

There’s still concern about long-term inflation.

The New York Fed reports that people expect inflation to rise about 3% by 2028 and another 2.6% by 2030. A University of Michigan survey found most consumers aren’t preparing for the worst, but they do expect inflation to stay elevated and a mild economic slowdown.

The U.S. is concerned about tariff-related price hikes. Consumers told the University of Michigan that they expect the tariffs to cause them to pay slightly more for goods and services soon.

The Trump administration has attempted to ease those fears.

The administration used a White House economic report suggesting import prices fell 0.1% this year. Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran said whatever effect tariffs may have had on prices was overwhelmed by the administration’s push to repeal Biden-era rules.

Economists believe tariff-related price shocks will eventually hit the entire country. They’ve highlighted Trump’s tendency to announce tariffs and then delay their implementation. At the same time, Joseph Brusuelas at RSM noted that prices on canned vegetables have risen since Trump reimposed steel and aluminum tariffs earlier this year.

It’s not known how large the tariff price shocks will be. Donald Boudreaux, an economics professor at George Mason University, said tariffs might not significantly affect prices, but not because of Trump’s policy. He praised the large and dynamic U.S. economy.

This atmosphere of uncertainty may explain why the Fed hasn’t moved to lower interest rates to boost spending.

The Fed has held its benchmark rate at 4.50% since December 2024 in what Chairman Jerome Powell called a “holding pattern.” He told Congress in July that the Fed would wait for more data because he believes tariff-related inflation will happen “over the course of the coming months.”

That’s infuriated the Trump administration and congressional allies.

In a letter sent to Powell last month, the president demanded rates be lowered to at least 1.75% to match countries like Denmark, Seychelles, and Thailand. Trump claimed that the delay cost the U.S. “hundreds of billions of dollars” and insisted there was “no inflation.”

He reinforced that message on July 11.

“He’s costing our country a lot of money,” he told reporters. “We should be No. 1, and we’re not. That’s because of Jerome Powell.”

There is some concern that the White House’s comments infringe on the Fed’s independence. However, it’s not unusual for a presidential administration to complain about interest rates. President Harry Truman tried, but failed, to get the Fed to lower interest rates during the 1950s. President Richard Nixon successfully lobbied then-Fed Chairman Arthur F. Burns to keep rates low before the 1972 presidential election. George H.W. Bush, as a former president, blamed his 1992 election loss on then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan not lowering interest rates.

The Trump administration believes Powell ignored inflation and waited too long to raise interest rates in 2021. They now believe he’s waiting too long to lower rates.

While Trump has no plans to renominate Powell for a new term as Fed chairman next year, some Republicans want Powell to exit sooner.

Sens. Bernie Moreno (R-OH), Rick Scott (R-FL), and Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) have all demanded Powell’s resignation. They want Trump to appoint a new chairman who will lower rates.

Echoing the president, Moreno claimed that Powell’s hesitance to lower interest rates cost the economy $400 billion a year.

Economists believe the Fed is in a tough spot.

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Kedia said Powell would love to lower rates to stimulate the economy and raise employment, but tariff uncertainty makes it too risky.

Boudreaux thinks the Fed needs to lower inflation as much as possible. “The Fed should rein in monetary growth by raising its interest rate,” he said.

Taylor Millard is a freelance journalist who lives in Virginia.