The massive deployment of wind and solar energy expected over the next five years won’t be enough to support the growing power demand brought on by data centers and artificial intelligence, the Trump administration said in a new analysis. 

The Department of Energy released a report Monday on strengthening the reliability and security of the U.S. power grid. It analyzes how much generation is poised to retire and come online by 2030. 

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While the grid is expected to see more than 200 gigawatts of new power generation by the start of the next decade, planned retirements of what the administration described as “firm generation,” such as coal, natural gas, and nuclear, will continue to threaten reliability. 

The Energy Department report estimates that 104 gigawatts’ worth of plant retirements are scheduled over the next five years. If this and the current pace of new additions of firm generation remain unchanged, the agency said it could increase blackouts across the country by 100%. 

The report primarily takes issue with the disparity between the amount of renewable, yet intermittent, power sources like wind and solar set to plug into the grid and the amount of “firm” sources like natural gas. 

Out of the 210 gigawatts of new generation estimated to come online by 2030, the report describes only 22 gigawatts as “firm generation.” Roughly 31 gigawatts would be four-hour battery storage, 124 gigawatts would be new solar, and 32 gigawatts would be new wind-generated energy. 

While this is immense growth for the renewable energy sector, Department of Energy officials told reporters Monday that it was the “wrong type of generation needed to address the reliability issue.” 

“What the report looked at … is how these power sources, these intermittent power sources, solar and wind, they aren’t reliable when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining,” one official said. 

The problem isn’t solved by reversing retirement plans for aging power plants. The report also found that if there were no retirements over the next five years, outage risks in several regions would still rise by more than thirtyfold. 

That’s because, according to the report, the U.S. will see peak hour energy supply demand rise by at least 100 gigawatts by 2030, 50 of which can be directly attributed to power-hungry data centers. 

The Energy Department has said that this, combined with planned retirements, creates an urgent need for the deployment of more baseload energy generation, from sources such as coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear. 

That’s not to say the administration will solely be focused on those types of energy. 

Department officials emphasized that the administration will continue to look at other alternatives, such as hydrocarbon and geothermal, as long as they have an opportunity to “really help support our grid in a meaningful way.” 

The report marks the latest blow from Republicans to the wind and solar industries, which have long faced the ire of President Donald Trump. 

WHAT MADE IT INTO THE SENATE’S FINAL ‘BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL’ AND WHAT DIDN’T

Wind and solar projects are poised to see substantial amounts of federal incentives cut over the next few years due to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which the president signed on Friday. 

The bill specifically phases out clean energy tax credits for wind and solar projects placed in service – meaning operational and plugged into the grid – by the end of 2027. It does also include a carve-out for projects that begin construction in less than one year, but it remains to be seen how many will meet that deadline.