Republicans could find themselves at a disadvantage down-ballot if former President Donald Trump secures the party's nomination in 2024.
In a scenario with Trump atop the ticket, Democrats have a five-point advantage on a generic congressional ballot, according to a WPA Intelligence poll. During the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans had a 2.8-point edge over Democrats.
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"With Democrats having a +5 lead in the congressional ballot and Trump at the top of the ticket, Republicans would almost certainly lose the House," WPA Intelligence said.
Both Trump and President Joe Biden remain unpopular with significant swaths of voters. But Trump's numbers are about 14 points worse, with 52% viewing him "very unfavorably" while 39% feel the same way about Biden.
In fact, Trump appears to have lost ground relative to Biden. Biden tops Trump 47% to 40% and has a substantial 44% to 30% edge with independent voters, per the poll. Trump lost independents by 9 points in 2020, per Pew Research.
Democrats have a 0.3 percentage point lead over Republicans on a generic general election ballot, and Trump has a 1.4 percentage point lead over Biden in the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate.
Two other findings that augur poorly for Trump are that voters back criminally charging him and don't buy into his stolen election narrative.
When asked if they would support a candidate for House or Senate who peddled 2020 election denialism, 63% said "no," while 37% said "yes." Trump still maintains the 2020 election was "stolen" and "rigged" despite experts roundly rejecting those claims.
Some 59% surveyed concluded that Trump should be charged in the Fulton County inquiry into efforts by Trump and his allies to challenge the 2020 election, while 41% were opposed.
Respondents came down the exact same way, 59% to 41%, in favor when asked if Trump should be charged for special counsel Jack Smith's two-pronged inquiry into the Jan. 6 Capitol riot and the Mar-a-Lago classified document ordeal.
Trump has vehemently denied wrongdoing on all accounts.
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The poll was conducted among 1,571 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points from May 10 to 13. It featured a split sample of 789 registered voters for the 2024 Biden vs. Trump matchup.
WPA CEO Chris Wilson serves as an adviser to the DeSantis-aligned Never Back Down super PAC. WPA stressed in its disclosure that the poll was conducted independently and "not sponsored by Never Back Down or any of its affiliates."