Former President Barack Obama's campaign manager encouraged President Joe Biden on Monday not to spend attention worrying about the recent influx of polls showing former President Donald Trump defeating him in a hypothetical 2024 rematch.
Jim Messina, who ran Obama's successful 2012 campaign, cited "unreliable" polling during Obama's reelection bid as one reason Biden and Democrats should rely less on surveys and focus on real data, such as voter registration, special elections, and turnout.
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"The people who take the time to answer pollster questions right now are already politically engaged," Messina wrote for Politico. "They are either die-hard partisans or trying to make a point. But swing voters aren't tuned in yet and may not decide who to back until very late, and they are the ones who will decide this election."
New York Times-Siena College polls released this month showed Trump beating Biden in five of six key battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Those polls have led to Democrats fretting over the president's reelection campaign.
However, Messina pointed to negative polling during Obama's reelection campaign that led to Obama wiping "the floor with Mitt Romney." Obama won nine out of the 10 battleground states that had polls showing the two men tied before the 2012 election.
Messina stressed Biden should focus on an economic message and the battleground states and prepare to take on Trump, whom he defeated during the 2020 elections. "The Biden campaign has a much better economy than we did in 2011, and its individual policies are very popular," Messina wrote about the Obama administration recovering from the Great Recession. "There is still plenty of time to break through with voters — the policies they like are actually Bidenomics."
In this election cycle, there are seven battleground states that will help determine the next president. Messina argued that Biden can defeat Trump if he wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin while holding on to his gains from 2020 in the Sunbelt and possibly trying to win North Carolina.
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As Trump deals with the legal fallout from 91 indictments across four criminal cases, Messina said voters would come around to supporting Biden if he focused on his record. "I believe voters will move in Biden's direction when they hear what the president has done and get reminded (by Democrats and Biden himself) of the chaotic, lawless circus that was Trump's presidency," he added.
Messina concluded with his list of suggestions to Biden by arguing that with roughly a year out from the 2024 elections, polls may serve as a distraction from the real matters. "His campaign (along with the rest of us) needs to ignore the noise and build the strong campaign it needs to win — just like in 2020," Messina said. "And Democrats need to remember what I learned back in 2011: Voters decide elections, not polls."