Most of the 2028 Democratic presidential field lacks significant support among black primary voters, according to a recent poll.

That could spell trouble for these candidates as they try to make it through the primaries. Anemic black support for the eventual Democratic nominee could also be a major problem in the general election.

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The usual caveats apply: It is early, there is plenty of time for a new face in Democratic politics to catch fire with black voters and the party’s base more generally, and the poll is a national survey with a small sample size among nonwhite voters.

Nevertheless, the poll by Echelon Insights, a Republican firm, found that most Democrats widely seen as possible successors to President Donald Trump have single-digit black support for the nomination.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris, the 2024 nominee, leads with 35%. The only other candidate in the double digits is Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) at 11%. (A sitting House member hasn’t been elected president since James Garfield in 1880.) Both are black women.

Next comes Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) at 8%, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) at 4%, Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) at 4%, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) at 3%. Sports media personality Stephen A. Smith took 2%, Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) 1%, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg 0% (not a typo).

For Buttigieg, this is a continuation of the minute levels of black support he received in 2020 polls during what was otherwise considered a surprisingly strong bid for the Democratic nomination by a politician who was then just a former mayor of South Bend, Indiana. 

Among Democrats of all races, the breakdown is 26% for Harris, 13% for Newsom, 11% for Buttigieg, 6% for Ocasio-Cortez, 5% for Booker, and 3% for Crockett. Shapiro, Whitmer, and Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL) each also received 3%. Billionaire Mark Cuban and Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) polled at 2% apiece. 

It’s entirely possible that Harris, who recently passed on a run for governor of California, bows out of the 2028 presidential race and leaves the Democratic primaries, particularly the contest for black support, wide open.

Some Democrats currently taking a pass on the race, like Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD), might be more interested in running if Harris doesn’t.

However, black Democrats were hugely important to Joe Biden, winning the party’s nomination in 2020, Hillary Clinton beating Bernie Sanders in 2016, and Barack Obama beating Clinton in 2008. The South Carolina primary, which could come early once again in 2028, was pivotal for all three candidates, who each won the state’s black vote by landslide margins.

South Carolina Democrats, rallied by Rep. James Clyburn’s (D-SC) endorsement, rescued Biden’s flailing 2020 candidacy and beat back the party’s lurch toward wokeness and socialism. 

Biden’s lead among black voters dates back to at least the summer of 2019. In 2020, he had done poorly in early states with few such voters, and the Democratic National Committee revamped the 2024 primary calendar to diminish Iowa and New Hampshire while elevating South Carolina. 

But Hillary Clinton initially led among black Democrats ahead of the 2008 primaries, until there was a massive shift among these voters toward Obama after he won the Iowa caucuses and came within 3 points in New Hampshire. Obama’s strong performances in those two overwhelmingly white states convinced many black Democrats he was a viable national candidate.

Thus, a change in these poll numbers would not be unprecedented, especially if Harris doesn’t run. However, affecting such a sizable shift in public opinion wouldn’t be easy.

In addition to the role black voters have historically played in the Democratic primaries, the defeat of the Harris-Walz ticket last year suggests that the party may have maxed out on what it can accomplish appealing to college-educated white people.

Trump was returned to the White House with the most racially and ethnically diverse coalition of any Republican presidential nominee in a generation, especially as he appealed to a multiracial group of working-class voters. 

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While Trump has elicited intense opposition from black and Hispanic Democratic lawmakers, he has made inroads with both groups of voters since 2016, especially among men. College-educated white voters have largely powered the Resistance. Winning Democratic coalitions have tended to be more racially, ethnically, and economically diverse than what Harris was able to cobble together last November.

Time will tell whether Democrats can do better next time.