Four of the nation’s most accurate 2024 election pollsters have formed an independent group to produce “the very best” data and challenge the bias in competing surveys, many run by the media and colleges.
The National Association of Independent Pollsters will start with Big Data Poll, InsiderAdvantage, Trafalgar Group, and Rasmussen Reports, all of which were top 10 polls in 2024.
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Membership will be by invitation only and based on “a cumulative record of published public polling with a high degree of accuracy/low error rate,” the group said.
“We don’t need to set any standards given that anyone who is a member or future member of this organization has already established that they are among the most accurate pollsters in America,” said Richard Baris of Big Data Poll and the chairman of the group.
Its spokesman, Trafalgar pollster Robert Cahaly, told Secrets that the four polling organizations have been frustrated by inaccuracy in the industry and surveys that often hide how they are conducted.
“Ours is an alliance for accuracy,” he said, adding, “This group is going to have all kinds of different things it may do, but it mainly is designed to celebrate groups that are accurate and put out information that is more accurate than others do.”
BREAKING: Four of the nation’s most accurate public opinion research firms @BIGDATAPOLL, @InsiderPolling, @Rasmussen_Poll, & @trafalgar_group have announced the formation of The National Association of Independent Pollsters.
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) July 8, 2025
Members will be chosen based solely on consistent… pic.twitter.com/XoyszoKb3w
He expects the organization, formed July 4th to share information, to quickly expand. He said two other independent pollsters just today asked to become members.
In the lead up to the 2024 election and since, polls have been divided over President Donald Trump and the GOP control of Washington. Several independent polls, including the four in the new association, have found that Trump is more popular than he was during his first term and that Americans largely like what he is doing.
Imagine if these pollsters had actually asked this question, you know, hear me out, BEFORE the election? https://t.co/RjHiXeIaew
— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@honestpollster) July 4, 2025
Many media polls, however, have said the opposite and the press play up those polls over the independents.
Cahaly said it is unrealistic to think that media and college polls are unbiased since the sponsors are biased, and most are anti-Trump. “We all know media organizations and universities have bias, but somehow never suggest their polling does? No,” he said.
The new group is something of a counter to the industry’s American Association for Public Opinion Research, which sets standards and ethics.
For the new group, there is only one standard: getting the results right. “A poll has one of two purposes. It is to reflect the electorate or to affect the electorate. Too many polls out there today seem like they are trying to affect the electorate. And our goal is to reflect it as closely and as perfectly as we can. We’re just four groups that are absolutely obsessed with getting this stuff right. And if that means that we say Trump’s going to win, that’s fine,” Cahaly said.
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In the 2024 election, for example, many media polls showed former Vice President Kamala Harris leading Trump, which even her internal polling never showed. Independent polls, however, showed Trump poised to win, especially in battleground states.
The most egregious example of a biased media poll was the Selzer & Company survey sponsored by the Des Moines Register showing Harris “leapfrogging” over Trump in the state, 47%-44%. Trump won Iowa four days later, 56%-42%.