Virginia’s gubernatorial race is tight exactly eight months before Election Day, though the political “environment” appears to favor Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.

In the latest Cygnal poll of commonwealth voters shared with Secrets, Earle-Sears is losing 40%-46% to former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger months before both parties host primaries.

However, lead Cygnal pollster Brent Buchanan said the details in the survey of general election voters indicate the political landscape, greatly influenced by President Donald Trump, favors Earle-Sears.

His analysis, for example, showed that Earle-Sears has a higher net favorability rating than Spanberger and does better among Republicans than her likely foe does with Democrats.

What’s more, voters believe Virginia is on an economically strong footing and heading in the right direction after nearly four years under Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA).

While Trump’s firings of federal workers, many of whom live in northern Virginia and Norfolk, could affect the race, Buchanan’s analysis suggested that Earle-Sears is still in the driver’s seat.

That is in part because the president’s efforts to cut waste through the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency has big support.

“There is broad support across the board with 71% of voters backing DOGE’s push to streamline the federal government, including 76% of independents and 78% of swing voters,” Cygnal said.

“Even those least expected to support it agree: Nearly 60% of households with a federal employee and even 46% plurality of Democrats agree with DOGE’s purpose, showing bipartisan appeal,” it added.

Buchanan’s analysis suggested that Virginia voters are more supportive of Republicans than before Trump’s election, and that gives Earle-Sears an opening.

“In a state [former Vice President Kamala] Harris won by 6, Spanberger currently leads by the same margin, showing a competitive race under a Trump presidency. The generic ballot is even tighter with Democrats only leading by 3 points. Voters undecided on the named ballot break for a generic Republican candidate by more than 2-1 — a key opportunity for Sears,” it said.

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And Buchanan told Secrets, “The fact that Winsome Sears is already performing at Trump’s 2024 margin, despite the supposed headwinds of federal downsizing, is a great place for her to be nine months out from the election.”

The poll is just the latest to show a tight race weeks before it kicks in. Also, in the past week, two Republican challengers have emerged to take on Earle-Sears in the primary, though she still dominates that race.