Republican presidential primary candidates will square off onstage for the fourth time this cycle Wednesday evening at the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
However, the only candidate who won't make an appearance is the only one voters seem to think matters — former President Donald Trump.
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Like the previous three GOP debates this cycle, Trump has opted to skip Wednesday's event, and for good reason. He holds a commanding lead over the field, despite facing nearly 100 felony indictments, and, for the most part, his opponents have chosen not to focus on the former president's legal woes.
Here's why that is unlikely to change.
WHAT DOESN'T KILL HIM MAKES HIM STRONGER
Staring down 91 felony indictments might lead some candidates to withdraw from the public eye, but not Trump.
In fact, "Teflon Don" has thrived through similar situations throughout his political career, ranging from a quid-pro-quo-alleged impeachment inquiry to multiple sexual assault allegations. Trump's willingness to mud-sling is unrivaled in modern politics, and his off-color attacks on those investigating him and others supporting said inquiries frequently energize his base both in real life and online.
And this time around, Trump's polling has only improved as each subsequent indictment comes in. As of Wednesday, the RealClearPolitics polling aggregate shows Trump up more than 48 points on the field. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has occupied second place since jumping in the race, and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley has surged into third. Still, neither has directly attacked Trump over his indictments at any of the first three debates, likely to avoid incurring the wrath of the MAGA faithful in a general election should they somehow secure the GOP nomination.
The sole GOP candidate to attack Trump head-on has been former New Jersey Republican Gov. Chris Christie, to extremely poor results. Christie, who has infamously flip-flopped in his Trump opinions multiple times in the past seven years, is only registering 2.5% support in the Real Clear Politics average. He's campaigned almost exclusively in New Hampshire, where he is polling just north of 11%, good for third place.
THE MORE, THE MESSIER
Trump's legal cases span the federal courts, New York, and Georgia and involve his actions both in the White House and as a businessman.
That's effectively blurring the lines on how the indictments themselves are being received by Republican voters, the majority of whom have lost trust in federal law enforcement bodies, including the Federal Bureau of Investigation and wider Justice Department, in recent years.
And while Trump's cases are all weighing separate, alleged crimes, they've generally been memory-holed by Republican voters as partisan "witch hunts," an all-time Trumpism.
It also didn't help when President Joe Biden faced his own investigation for the mishandling of classified documents, one of the legal headaches Trump is still dealing with but is not expected to face charges. The Biden administration has emphatically stated that the president is not directing the DOJ to go after Trump, but that isn't easing Republican concerns.
A CNN poll this fall showed that 80% of Republican voters believe that prosecutors charging Trump are playing "partisan politics."
A VEEP STAKES WINNER?
Trump notably dumped former Vice President Mike Pence from his ticket heading into the 2024 cycle, and there is a prevailing thought that he wants to select a minority candidate or a woman as his undercard to cut into Biden's hold on those demographics.
Two candidates who fit that mold will be onstage Wednesday: Haley and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
Haley has frequently clashed with Trump since departing his administration, but her strength in South Carolina, a state that vaulted Biden from third place into first during the 2020 Democratic primary, could provide enough political capital for Trump to settle on her. She also holds policy positions virtually identical to the former president's, despite criticizing him for adding to the national debt, especially during the coronavirus pandemic.
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Meanwhile, Ramaswamy, a political newcomer, has been the staunchest Trump supporter of any Republican presidential hopeful and, unlike his fellow candidates, did not criticize the former president for skipping the third debate when asked to do so onstage.
DeSantis, whom many Republicans had hoped would be Pence's replacement before he entered the race earlier this year, has received the most incoming fire from Trump of any candidate. However, DeSantis was incredibly popular among Florida's Latino population, who were, in turn, responsible for flipping the state and Miami-Dade County red in 2022, and it isn't totally out of the question that Trump would court DeSantis and frame it as a healing moment for a fractured Republican Party.