Arizona will have some of the most fiercely contested races in 2024. The state is expected to be a critical swing state in the presidential election, and it could see a three-way Senate race, but three critical House races will also happen in the Grand Canyon State.
While the presidential race and the Senate race have caught most of the attention for the 2024 elections, the majority party in the House of Representatives could be decided with two of the races in Arizona. Here are three critical House races and their impact on the balance of the chamber or the implications for the Arizona GOP.
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Congressional District 1
Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ) will be one of the most endangered incumbents in next year's elections as he seeks another term in 2024. The Cook Political Report rates the district as Republican plus-2 on its "Partisan Voting Index," and it says the race for the seat in 2024 is a "toss up."
The district reelected Schweikert 50.4%-49.6% over Democrat Jevin Hodge in 2022, despite voting for Democrats Katie Hobbs in the governor's race and Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) in the Senate race that year.
Several Democrats are vying to take on Schweikert in November, including former Arizona Democratic Party Chairman Andrei Cherny, former television news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, and state Rep. Amish Shah.
Congressional District 6
Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) will face a difficult reelection bid after narrowly winning the seat in 2022. He defeated Democrat Kirsten Engel 50.7%-49.3%, and the district voted for the Democratic candidates in the gubernatorial and Senate races on the same ballot.
The Cook Political Report rates Arizona's 6th Congressional District as Republican plus-3 on its "Partisan Voting Index," and it says the race for the seat in 2024 is a "toss up."
Engel, a former state senator, is seeking a rematch against Ciscomani next year in what is likely to be one of the key races for control of the House.
Congressional District 8
While this race is not likely to be close in the general election, the primary will likely be an indication of the direction of the Republican Party in the Grand Canyon State.
The district rates as Republican plus-10, according to the Cook Political Report, and is rated as "Solid Republican" by the outlet. Republican voters in the district will choose if they will go for a traditional GOP candidate, such as state House Speaker Ben Toma, or a Trump-aligned candidate, such as former state attorney general candidate Abe Hamadeh.
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Toma has been endorsed by Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-AZ), who currently represents the district, while Hamadeh has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump.
The Arizona GOP has embraced the Trump wing of the party with its statewide candidates, even as the losses continue to mount. Kari Lake, who is a fierce supporter of Trump, appears likely to be the GOP nominee for the Senate race next year.